Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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439 FXUS63 KGLD 121559 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 959 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally severe storms possible. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper ridge over the southern Rockies will result in hot temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Shortwave trough rotating around the ridge will result in isolated storm chances today along a surface trough/dry line feature that will be in eastern areas this afternoon. Confidence is low that the cap will break, but environmental parameters do support a severe risk if that should occur. On Thursday, a cold front will move through early with winds shifting to northeast then east. Another shortwave trough rotates around the ridge axis providing synoptic scale lift. Storms should initiate in the afternoon in southwestern areas with frontal boundary the favored location, then increase in coverage Thursday night. Environmental parameters show moderate instability and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts, sufficient for a marginal risk for severe storms, though the overall weak forcing should keep coverage somewhat limited. On Friday, the ridge axis moves east with a fairly strong shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies behind it Friday afternoon and Friday night. Moderate to pockets of strong instability are forecast with a moist southeasterly flow at the surface. Deep layer shear will be 30-35 kts. Given the better forcing with the shortwave, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop, with the potential for a few supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Mean storm motion will be northeast at around 20 kts, but right movers will be slower at around 10 kts to the east, suggesting the possibility of locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding with any supercell that develops. Mean precipitation totals for Friday afternoon through Friday night range from a quarter to half inch in southwestern areas to a half inch to an inch in southwest Nebraska. Higher percentile precipitation amounts in southwest Nebraska and the Kansas-Nebraska border area range between 2 and 2 and a half inches, which will be area with the greatest risk for heavy rainfall Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 102 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The upper trough moves through the area on Saturday. Sunday-Monday an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, progressing eastward through the first part of the work week, and brushing past the area towards the end of the long term period. Between the Saturday system, the Tuesday-Wednesday system centered to our north, and a few weak shortwaves in between, at least parts of the area hang onto daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance. Temperatures for the period are forecast generally in the upper 80s and 90s with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 959 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, north-northwest 10-20kts. Strongest gusts before 23z. By 03z Thursday, southeast around 10kts, shifting southwest by 08z Thursday. For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, west-northwest 10-20kts through 02z Thursday, then light/variable. By 13z, becoming northwest around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN