526
FXUS63 KGLD 261013
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
413 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions expected
  through the upcoming weekend.

- There is the potential for a system to move through at the
  beginning of next week, bringing near to below average
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The upper level ridge will be positively tilted over the Tri-State
area as an upper trough swings over the Northwest CONUS. The ridge
will remain the dominant feature over the region through the
overnight hours tonight before the trough slides over the High
Plains on Friday. Guidance suggests little to no impact to the area
as a surface high strengthens over the Colorado Rockies into the
Black Hills. Temperatures will be above normal in the 80s across the
area each day. Overnight Friday, the upper ridge is expected to
strengthen once again over the Western CONUS and quickly push
the trough further east. Temperatures will remain above average
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and the 80s on
Friday. Overnight lows will likely be in the 50s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The weekend continues to look fairly benign with dry conditions,
highs in the upper 80`s, and winds around 10 to 15 mph. There is
still a very low chance for briefly critical fire weather conditions
in Eastern Colorado each day.

Next week has become a bit less certain due to the hurricane
upstream. Ensembles show a fairly even split between the hurricane
pushing off the coast towards the end of the weekend, and the
hurricane lingering until Mon/Tue before getting swept up in the main
flow. For our area, this mainly affects Monday and Tuesday. The
faster the system, the cooler Monday is and the warmer Tuesday is.
The slower the system, the warmer Monday is and the cooler Tuesday
would be. Precipitation chances are very low in either scenario due
to dry air, though the slower system that moves through late Monday
may be able to spark a few showers and storms.

Later in the week, there is still some splitting in scenarios is the
western ridge will redevelop, or if another wave can push through.
There is a fair amount of clustering around zonal flow which would
likely have us in near average temperatures and generally dry
conditions. The forecast currently reflects this.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A southerly
wind around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z,
increasing a bit with gusts up to 20kts from 17z-22z. After 23z,
southeast winds up to 11kts veer to the south.

KMCK...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z. After
16z, south to southeast winds up to 10kts are expected except in
the 18z-22z timeframe when southerly winds gust to around 20kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99