622
FXUS63 KGLD 021918
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
118 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain possible mainly south of I-70
  this evening. A low chance (20%) of severe storms overnight
  with large hail the main threat.

- Wednesday, there is the potential for a significant severe
  weather day for the area. Storms are forecast to move west to
  east across the area with the potential to produce hail up to
  3 inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph, and tornadoes. There are a
  few scenarios where storm coverage is instead limited and
  weak.

- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid level troughing is present across the area currently with a weak
cold front draped across southern portions of the area. 700mb
moisture looks to continue for the most of the area keeping skies
partly to mostly cloudy. Some thicker stratus looks to impact
northern portions of the area as well to start the afternoon with
continued overcast skies.


Weak shortwave which is currently moving off of the Rockies will be
the focal point for storm development as it reaches the Palmer
Divide. RAP has been showing an increase in 700-500 mb moisture
correlating with continued CAM initiation roughly around the Flagler
area around 20Z. Strong to marginally severe weather is possible
initially due to a lack of instabilty as dew points in the mid to
upper 40s are in place. As this continues to trek east into better
moisture do think a slow intensification process looks to occur. RAP
forecast soundings indicate an environment that would be
favorable for 70 mph winds and hail up to two inches in a fully
mature cell.

Cold front will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight. Another
weak wave will move off the mountains and with an increasing
LLJ will add to lift across southern portions of the area. HRRR
is currently suggesting an environment that would be supportive
of severe weather overnight across SW portions of the area with
stronger moisture advection. RAP and NAM are not as aggressive
on the moisture return which would keep elevated CAPE values
down some. Thinking there is some potential for overnight hail
around half dollar size with a mature cell. Showers and storms
will expand in coverage into the morning hours to the east. Will
leave the patchy fog in the forecast for tonight across the
east as the RAP continues to show around 90% surface RH and
light easterly winds which is supportive of fog development;
however if the showers and storms do occur that will end any fog
potential where the rainfall is ongoing.


RAP consistently has been showing a signal for low stratus to hang
around the majority of the day Wednesday so have trended high
temperatures down a few degrees along and east of Highway 27 where
this is forecast to occur. The main focus for the day Wednesday will
be on another round of severe weather. A sharp surface trough will
be across the region. A 250mb jet streak will also be developing
throughout the day to provide upper level support. A dry line looks
to be situated across Colorado which will be the focal point for
initiation, potentially as early as 1pm MT. Supercells capable of
very large hail initially, perhaps a tornado threat can develop as
well if a cell can remain discrete into the mid to late afternoon as
SRH increases. Storms are then forecast to grow upscale with outflow
boundaries as they interact with a very moist air mass and a
strengthening LLJ as it moves to the east. Do have some concerns
of a bow echo developing as 700mb winds increase into the
evening hours; if this does occur then wind gusts in excess of
70 mph will be on the table. There may be some potential for a
quick spinup squall line (QLCS) tornado as well along the
leading edge as the RAP does indicate 25-50 j/kg of 0-3 CAPE.
Depending on the orientation of the line if its W to E or NW to
SE oriented will be dependent on the tornado threat as the 0-3
shear vector looks to be oriented more SE to NW. However there
is some potential that storms will be more isolated and/or be on
the weaker side due to concerns about instability especially if
the cloud cover does in fact linger all day. There also does
appear to be some concern on the timing of the wave off the
Rockies as well which would turn the severe threat into if
severe storms in the Nebraska Panhandle can follow a CAPE
gradient into the CWA. So there area still quite a bit that
needs to be worked out so continue to stay up to date with the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

To start the long term, a cold front will move across the area on
the 4th of July holiday in response to a developing ridge across the
western CONUS, will also need to watch for low stratus development
Thursday morning as 850 mb moisture moves along just ahead of
the front. A surface high nudges in tightening the pressure
gradient across the area which looks to bring breezy conditions
to the area. Be sure to use caution if using any fireworks! High
temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s across the
majority of the area. Low to slight chance shower and storm
chances will remain in the forecast with 700-500mb moisture
potentially moving in from the north during the afternoon and
evening hours. Thursday night into Friday morning, the surface
high will still be influence the weather across the region which
will support lower dew points and lighter winds especially
across the west. Would not be surprised if some higher
elevations across the west fall into upper 40s for low
temperatures.

A blocking pattern at least from temperature standards looks to
occur as a large surface high develops across the southern CONUS
which will keep our temperatures below normal but still in the 80s
to low 90s. Upper level northwest flow will be dominant through
the extended period which will keep some potential for daily
showers and storms with any disturbance that ride down the
eastern periphery of the ridge. A stronger wave does look
possible late weekend into the early week which may support some
severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1051 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Instances of MVFR ceilings continues for KMCK as another batch
of 850mb moisture looks to move across SW Nebraska but will end
during the early afternoon hours. Watching for some strong to
perhaps severe storm potential near the KGLD terminal this
evening; some AMD may be needed if confidence increases enough
that the terminal will be impacted. Increasing moisture again
overnight will lead to stratus and fog potential at each
terminal with KMCK currently favored for fog due to lighter
winds. Showers and storms will also redevelop tonight with VCTS
at this time favored for KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg