099
FXUS63 KGLD 230929
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
329 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures during this time.

- Chances for storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low
pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created
generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain
over the next few days. In the lower levels, we can expect the flow
to become southerly this evening. This air is expected to have a
little moisture content that will slowly lower dewpoints through the
period. These feature will contribute to low PoPs. This afternoon
and evening, far northwestern Yuma county may see a few sprinkles as
decaying showers from northern Colorado may (~20% confidence) reach
the CWA before falling completely apart.

Overnight tonight, we will remain mostly clear and winds will be
fairly light from the south-southwest. A few CAMs were showing some
fog moving into the eastern CWA tonight, but due to the SSW flow,
confidence for fog formation is less than 10%.

Tomorrow, we will see the southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts
and gusts up to 25 kts from the SSW. This will help a dryline form
fairly early in the day. Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to
start impacting the CWA around 18-21Z. These two features may set
off some scattered storms in the early afternoon. Best time for
convection will be between 20-01Z. A similar setup looks to occur on
Monday afternoon, too.

Temperatures tomorrow and Monday are of concern as temperatures will
warm to over 100 for most of the CWA. Monday will be the hotter day,
but heat indices east of highway 25 look to be over 100 both days,
with some westward expansion on Monday. Be prepared for a very hot
stretch of weather! Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid
60s to low 70s Sunday and Monday night.

There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
in the western CWA. RH values lower into the upper teens and winds
look to gust up around 15 kts. No where near critical fire weather
conditions, but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Overview: An upper level ridge.. extending northward from the
Desert Southwest to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed-
Thu).. will flatten and regress southward to the Desert
Southwest/Southern Plains (Thu-Fri), as an upper level low
moving ashore the Pacific NW progresses eastward to the Dakotas
and an associated trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ progresses
eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies. In the wake
of the progressive upper wave.. long range guidance indicates
that a west-east elongated ridge will amplify over the southern
CONUS (Sat-Sun). Above average temperatures are likely to
persist throughout the extended forecast period.

Wed: Precipitation chances /convective development/ will highly
depend upon the evolution of the ridge. 00Z 06/23 operational
ECMWF guidance continues to indicate that the magnitude,
position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1)
synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective
development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2)
that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-situ
convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains
(i.e. northwest KS). 00Z 06/23 operational GFS guidance, on the
other hand, continues to indicate a less pronounced, ridge..
with the mid-latitude westerlies (northwesterlies, in this case)
in closer proximity to the Tri-State area.. a somewhat more
favorable pattern for convective development.

Thu-Fri: While 00Z ECMWF/GFS operational guidance indicate that
synoptic forcing assoc/w the progressive upper wave will
largely be focused over the Northern Plains (Dakotas-Nebraska),
the presence of cyclonic flow aloft, in of itself, suggests an
above average potential for convection.

Sat-Sun: With an amplifying, west-east elongated ridge over the
southern CONUS.. above average temperatures and below average
precipitation chances are presently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through
the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds increase in magnitude
towards sunrise to around 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to
around 20 knots. Storms may develop tomorrow afternoon-evening,
with general timing between 21-03Z. Low confidence in coverage
and placement of any storms, and therefore, whether or not the
terminals would be impacted; as such, have omitted from this TAF
issuance but will reassess as needed. Storms tomorrow do carry
the potential to become severe, with primary hazard of damaging
wind gusts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area Sunday and
especially into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide,
there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at
least tying the daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June
23rd and Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to
the expected forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple
digit heat, most locales are still below records.

                      Sunday, 6/23           Monday, 6/24

Goodland KS           106F in 2012+          109F in 2012
Burlington CO         106F in 1954           107F in 1954
Hill City KS          111F in 2012           114F in 2012
McCook NE             106F in 2012+          107F in 1943
Colby KS              105F in 1943           107F in 2012
Tribune KS            105F in 1954           109F in 2012
Yuma CO               107F in 1954           103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CC
CLIMATE...JN