459
FXUS63 KGLD 241831
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 106 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures today and Tuesday. Today and Tuesday have
  Heat Advisories in effect.

- Chances for storms each day.

- Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in eastern
  Colorado Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are clear with a southerly
flow area-wide and temperatures as of 300 AM MDT mainly in the 70s
east of the Colorado border, and 60s west.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on the
threat for severe thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Also, hot
and above normal persistent temperatures will create dangerous heat
indices.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing a broad dome of
high pressure stretching from the Rockies into the Plains region.
This is resulting in a zonal flow aloft. GFS/NAM guidance is
continuing to show the ridge will amplify into the Rockies going
into Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually shifting into the Plains
region thereafter. There will be a couple weak 500/700mb shortwaves
that will work through the ridge during the short term period.

At the surface, there is currently a trough extending south along
the eastern slopes of the Rockies. This will work east off the Front
Range later today and slowly move through the CWA. Southerly flow
during the day will slowly transition to northerly overnight ahead
of another low set to work into the Front Range area. This low will
push slowly south Tuesday night as a ridge pushes in from the north.

With this, conditions remain intact from previous forecast to
continue the Heat Advisory for the eastern CWA as reading will hit
the 103-106 mark for heat indices, with highs fairly close to this.
West of this, not much cooler, but less humidity. Drier air works
into the area Tuesday with the focus in Graham/Norton counties to
see Heat Advisory criteria to be met, so have issued an Advisory
there. Same timeframe as today, 18z-01z. Slightly cooler for
Wednesday with E/SE surface flow, so not expecting heat indices to
require an Advisory issuance.

Also, the slightly drier conditions in the west will bring about
elevated to near critical fire wx conditions for locales along/west
of Highway 27. This will occur Mon-Tue.

Finally, the passage of weak shortwaves will trigger scatter
convection each afternoon/evening. SPC has expanded the Marginal
Risk for today to areas along/east of Highway 25. Tuesday, Highway
83 and points east, and for Wednesday the entire CWA looks prone.
Wednesday will see more instability as the southeast surface flow
will usher in increased low level moisture. the hot temps for mon-
Tue will create mainly wind threats do to the drier low level, but
Wednesday hail and wind threats are possible. The increased moisture
has prompted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC, so
locally heavy rainfall could be an issue.

For temps, highs today will range in the lower to mid 100s with
hottest areas along/east of Highway 25. Going into Tuesday, highs
will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. And for Wednesday,
slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s expected.

Please refer to the updated Climate section below for information on
record highs for the area for today.

This afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, the hot above normal
temperatures combined with area humidity will create dangerous heat
indices. These will focused for eastern areas today with readings
103-106. Western areas will see 100-103. Tuesday will have the
highest readings(100-105) along and east of Highway 25.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s west into the mid 70s east.
Thereafter, Tuesday and Wednesday nights will see a range in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place over Texas for the
long-term, potentially moving a bit farther east over the weekend,
but retrograding Sunday evening. A 250mb low pressure system over
northern Montana will cut into the high and cause a southwesterly
jet over the northern Rockies Friday. These features look to move
east throughout the day, but could interact with our area enough to
produce some showers and storms Friday afternoon.

Saturday will see the flow return to zonal as the trough and low
move out of the area to the east. A weak 500mb shortwave looks to
provide us forcing for diurnal showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday looks less likely for convection due to the 250mb
ridge returning to the area by Sunday evening.

Guidance is showing a pretty strong signal that another trough will
work into the northwestern CONUS Monday, causing southwesterly flow
during the mid-day Monday. This trough could cause enough forcing,
and remove the ridge just long enough, to cause some moderately
organized convection Monday afternoon and evening, but there is a
lot of uncertainty this far out.

A far as temperatures, Saturday looks to be the coolest, with highs
in the low to mid 80s with Sunday being about 5 degrees warmer. For
Friday and Monday, 90s to near 100 high temperatures look likely.
Monday has potential for being the next very hot day. Overnight
temperatures will only cool into the 60s, with Saturday night being
the coolest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southerly wind under 11kts at taf issuance will continue through
about 00z. Tonight, east to southeast winds up to 11kts through
06z veer back to the south to southwest at similar speeds.
Tuesday morning, winds continue to veer to the northwest at
speeds up to 11kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, they are
possible in/near the terminal from roughly 20z-04z. The primary
hazard will be strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to 55kts
or so. Given the isolated nature of the activity, will not
include a mention in the taf forecast at this time.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southerly wind up to 11kts is expected through about 02z.
Tonight, southeast winds under 10kts become light and variable.
Tuesday morning, winds veer to the west then northwest at speeds
under 10kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, highest confidence
in them in/near the terminal is from 23z-03z. Similar to KGLD,
primary hazard is strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to
55kts or so.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State
area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of
focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these
areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds
will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times.
There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to
northerly on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at
least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few
degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for
Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast.

                      Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           109F in 2012

Burlington CO         107F in 1954

Hill City KS          114F in 2012

McCook NE             107F in 1943

Colby KS              107F in 2012

Tribune KS            109F in 2012

Yuma CO               103F in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...