Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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843 FXUS63 KGLD 170912 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 312 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed 100 degrees in many areas once again on Monday. Strong south winds will affect the majority of the area Monday afternoon. Sustained winds at 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph may create hazardous travel conditions, especially on west-east routes, such as I-70, where cross winds will be strongest. Reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust may exacerbate hazardous travel conditions. - Scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of the area during the afternoon hours on both Monday and Tuesday. Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible, should storms develop. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny, expect for mostly sunny skies across central portions of the CWA. This is where a meandering frontal boundary resides, with cumulus starting to pop up along it. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s/90s north of boundary into Nebraska. south of the boundary, 90s. For winds, south of the boundary, S/SE flow persists with gusts into the 20-25 mph range at times. Along the boundary, variable winds at times and to the north, E/NE flow persists. Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the potential for strong to severe storms over portions of the area during the afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday. Some blowing dust is possible Monday afternoon. Increased chances for rw/trw Tuesday/Tuesday evening could bring about heavy rainfall/flooding concerns in addition to the threats from severe storms(wind, hail, etc). For the remainder of the afternoon hrs into this evening, the wx threat will focus on where the aforementioned boundary resides. SPC has increased the Marginal risk in areas along/north of Highway 36 in NE/KS due to increased instability/moisture with a more easterly fetch. Between the HRRR, RAP and NamNest, the NamNest is the most aggressive with storm potential starting along and north of the front/boundary around 00z Monday, lifting north and east through 06z. HRRR/RAP only shows a few isolated cells that amount to very little. There is decent shear along/ahead of the front thanks to the easterly flow. Soundings from the HRRR around 21z-22z do show inverted-v profile and DCape around 1700-1800 j/kg, and SBCape around 1100-1200j/kg. So if a storm could initiate, it could grow fairly quickly with potentially all threat mode on the table, especially damaging winds. With the uncertainty of formation/coverage, plan on keeping close to previous forecast (20- 30% pops) for now. The later evening hours do show the potential for isolated rw/trw potential, so will trend a 20 pop through the CWA into Monday morning. Going into Monday, a similar situation to today. Front will remain the focus for any strong to severe storms. Surface low on the western side of the front in Colorado will focus increased southerly flow to areas across NE/KS. Models are hinting at 40-50 mph gust potential, especially in KS. Numbers stay low enough not to warrant a high wind watch, but need to be monitored for next forecast issuance. Also, western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties into Yuma county in Colorado will be on the low end for RH during the afternoon hrs. Areal coverage combined with winds meeting criteria warrants a fire wx watch(17z Mon-02z Tue) at this time. Local guidance is close to having patchy blowing dust in the southwest, so have kept a mention in but decreased coverage from previous forecast. The rest of the weather concerns will be on the threat for storms. CAMs are showing best chance from 00z Tuesday onward with the front lifting into northern tier CWA zones. This will bring another round of hot conditions, drying lower levels out. Model soundings show increased DCape values around 2000-2200j/kg in the 00z Tuesday timeframe, with SBCape values around 1200j/kg. Again like today, the best CAM showing this activity potential, the NamNest, keeps best chances along/north of the front, Highway 36 and north. Activity clears quicker than tonight, allowing for coverage to end by 06z Tuesday. Both today and Monday will also have high PW values of an inch plus, mainly in KS/NE, allowing for chances for heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. On Tuesday, the low associated with the front is pushed south due to a nosing ridge from the northern Rockies. This is going to push the front back south and east as well with it becoming nearly stationary through the evening hours. This boundary will interact with a passing 500mb shortwave creating rw/trw chances. With a persistent feed of moisture into the front area, pops have increased into the 60-80% range for the evening and overnight hours. Highest chances east near the front. Excessive rain along with another chance for strong to severe storms occurs. This will be focused in the east where the front will reside. Wind, hail threats will be on tap, along with chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns. As with the past couple days, precip chances do not let up going into the midweek timeframe. For temps, another hot day expected on Monday as highs will range in the upper 90s to low 100s. Going into Tuesday, with a front over the area, a wider range for highs is expected with lower 80s in the northwest into the mid 90s in the east- southeast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the 60s west of Highway 25, through the lower to mid 70s along and east of Highway 25. For Monday night, similar to tonight`s numbers, but some upper 50s may be seen in portions of northeast Colorado. Going into Tuesday night, cooler with mainly 50s expected. Some locales east of Highway 25/south of Highway 24 will range into lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and thunderstorms daily through the weekend as we remained stuck in southwest flow aloft for much of the week. An upper high strengthens along the Mid-Atlantic Coast while another area of high pressure develops over Texas towards the Ohio Valley, the upper trough along the West Coast will continue to struggle to move east due to the blocking high until the weekend. The trough will begin to slide east over the Northern to Central Plains Saturday while high pressure remains over the Southern CONUS. A warm front will sit over the far northern portions of the Tri-State area on Thursday as weak shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen a lee surface trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours through Saturday with low confidence (less than 20%) for showers and storms on Sunday. Thursday will begin a warming trend with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday and Saturday continue to warm back up with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90s. Overnight lows on Friday could be in the 60s to lower 70s while Saturday night lows are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to 60s. Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows falling into the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 GLD: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. A period of LLWS associated with a strong southerly LLJ (50-60 knot) is expected overnight. At the surface, SE winds at 10-20 knots will veer to the S and increase to 20-35 knots overnight. Winds will veer to the SW and decrease to 15-25 knots for a period mid-late Monday morning.. then back to the S and increase to 25-40 knots during the afternoon.. as a developing lee cyclone tracks northeastward into northeast CO. MCK: Severe convection invof the MCK terminal weakened and dissipated ~0245 UTC. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. A period of LLWS associated with a strong southerly LLJ (~50 knot) is expected overnight. At the surface, SE winds at 10-20 knots will veer to the S and increase to 20-30 knots a few hours after sunrise.. further increasing to 25-40 knots Monday afternoon.. as a developing lee cyclone tracks northeastward into northeast CO. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Monday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for northeast Colorado from 11 am to 7 pm. Humidity will drop into the 10-15% range as winds during the afternoon will increase from the south towards 45 mph. Best criteria will be hit in western portions of the counties. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for COZ090>092. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...BV FIRE WEATHER...JN