962
FXUS63 KGLD 241017
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 106 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday have
  Heat Advisories in effect.

- Chances for storms each day.

- Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in Eastern
  Colorado on Today and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are clear with a southerly
flow area-wide and temperatures as of 300 AM MDT mainly in the 70s
east of the Colorado border, and 60s west.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on the
threat for severe thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Also, hot
and above normal persistent temperatures will create dangerous heat
indices.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing a broad dome of
high pressure stretching from the Rockies into the Plains region.
This is resulting in a zonal flow aloft. GFS/NAM guidance is
continuing to show the ridge will amplify into the Rockies going
into Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually shifting into the Plains
region thereafter. There will be a couple weak 500/700mb shortwaves
that will work through the ridge during the short term period.

At the surface, there is currently a trough extending south along
the eastern slopes of the Rockies. This will work east off the Front
Range later today and slowly move through the CWA. Southerly flow
during the day will slowly transition to northerly overnight ahead
of another low set to work into the Front Range area. This low will
push slowly south Tuesday night as a ridge pushes in from the north.

With this, conditions remain intact from previous forecast to
continue the Heat Advisory for the eastern CWA as reading will hit
the 103-106 mark for heat indices, with highs fairly close to this.
West of this, not much cooler, but less humidity. Drier air works
into the area Tuesday with the focus in Graham/Norton counties to
see Heat Advisory criteria to be met, so have issued an Advisory
there. Same timeframe as today, 18z-01z. Slightly cooler for
Wednesday with E/SE surface flow, so not expecting heat indices to
require an Advisory issuance.

Also, the slightly drier conditions in the west will bring about
elevated to near critical fire wx conditions for locales along/west
of Highway 27. This will occur Mon-Tue.

Finally, the passage of weak shortwaves will trigger scatter
convection each afternoon/evening. SPC has expanded the Marginal
Risk for today to areas along/east of Highway 25. Tuesday, Highway
83 and points east, and for Wednesday the entire CWA looks prone.
Wednesday will see more instability as the southeast surface flow
will usher in increased low level moisture. the hot temps for mon-
Tue will create mainly wind threats do to the drier low level, but
Wednesday hail and wind threats are possible. The increased moisture
has prompted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC, so
locally heavy rainfall could be an issue.

For temps, highs today will range in the lower to mid 100s with
hottest areas along/east of Highway 25. Going into Tuesday, highs
will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. And for Wednesday,
slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s expected.

Please refer to the updated Climate section below for information on
record highs for the area for today.

This afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, the hot above normal
temperatures combined with area humidity will create dangerous heat
indices. These will focused for eastern areas today with readings
103-106. Western areas will see 100-103. Tuesday will have the
highest readings(100-105) along and east of Highway 25.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s west into the mid 70s east.
Thereafter, Tuesday and Wednesday nights will see a range in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, the upper level pattern over the Plains
region starts off with the 500mb ridge continuing to crest over the
area Thursday, going zonal on Friday into the start of the weekend,
before amplifying again into the Rockies for Sunday and next Monday.
Several 700mb shortwaves will pass through the ridge during the
extended period as well.

At the surface, there will be a digging trough over the eastern
slopes of the Rockies on Thursday that shifts south and east
overnight, slowly push south through the area and eventually
settling south of the CWA. There will be a meandering front
associated with the system that will be the focus for precip chances
for almost all of the extended forecast.

The aforementioned 700mb shortwaves will interact with the boundary
to trigger several rounds of rw/trw. With the front south of the
CWA, the best chances for storms will occur over southern portions
of the CWA. This could change as the week progresses as any shift in
the front either north or south will greatly change the areal
coverage of expected QPF.

The expected rainfall/cloud cover with the initial passage Thu-Thu
night will give the region a reprieve from the hot temps currently
forecasted, but they will slowly return for the end of the week as
the upper ridge re-amplifies.

The increase in PW values for the period to near 1.30-1.60" will
bring about locally heavy rainfall concerns and will have to be
monitored as the week progresses.

For temps, highs for Thursday and Friday will range in the 90s.
Going into the upcoming weekend, 80s are expected for Saturday and
for Sunday, a range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. By next
Monday, conditions reset to a range from the mid 90s to around 100F.

Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 60s west into the mid
70s east. For Friday night and weekend overnight lows, mainly 60s
are expected, with some locales Sunday night in the east around 70F.
Next Monday night will have a wide range from the lower to mid 60s
west of Highway 25. East of there, mid 60s to lower 70s
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds, southwest around 10kts shifting south-southeast
10-15kts by 18z-20z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State
area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of
focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these
areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds
will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times.
There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to
northerly on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at
least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few
degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for
Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast.

                      Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           109F in 2012

Burlington CO         107F in 1954

Hill City KS          114F in 2012

McCook NE             107F in 1943

Colby KS              107F in 2012

Tribune KS            109F in 2012

Yuma CO               103F in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN