698
FXUS63 KGLD 240925
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
325 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday will be higher
  prompting a Heat Advisory.

- Chances for storms each day.

- Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in Eastern
  Colorado on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low
pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created
generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain
over the next few days. There is a CU field forming over
southeastern Colorado and is expected to build into our area over
the next few hours. By around 22Z, if no showers or storms have
formed, the chance of precipitation for today will drop quickly.
However, if convection does occur, short-lived pop-up showers and
storms would be expected. No severe weather is expected this
evening, mainly due to a general lack of forcing, but wind gusts
could get up to around 50 MPH. Convection, if it occurs, will
generally fire near the KS/CO border and move east-northeast. By 3Z,
the precipitation is forecast to have completely ended.

Overnight tonight, once the precipitation ceases, we will be mostly
clear and winds will be around 10-15 kts from the south-southwest.
Low temperatures look to cool into the mid 60s to lower 70s tonight,
with the warmest temperatures near Hill City.

Tomorrow, we will be very similar to today, but even warmer. The
southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts from
the SSW. This will help a dryline form fairly early in the day.
Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to start impacting the CWA
around 18-21Z. These two features may set off some scattered storms
in the early afternoon. Best time for convection will be between 20-
01Z. The 500mb shortwave looks stronger tomorrow than today, but
confidence in storms is not very high, only about 15%.

Temperatures tomorrow are concerning and a Heat Advisory has been
issued for locations along and east of a line from Logan county to
Dundy county. Temperatures will warm to 100-105 for nearly all of
the CWA. Heat indices in the advised area are forecast to be near
105F. Be prepared for very hot weather! Overnight temperatures will
drop into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday night.

There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
in the western CWA. Minimum RH values are forecast to be in the mid
teens, but winds only gust up to around 10-15 kts in the western
portions of the CWA. No where near critical fire weather conditions,
but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, the upper level pattern over the Plains
region starts off with the 500mb ridge continuing to crest over the
area Thursday, going zonal on Friday into the start of the weekend,
before amplifying again into the Rockies for Sunday and next Monday.
Several 700mb shortwaves will pass through the ridge during the
extended period as well.

At the surface, there will be a digging trough over the eastern
slopes of the Rockies on Thursday that shifts south and east
overnight, slowly push south through the area and eventually
settling south of the CWA. There will be a meandering front
associated with the system that will be the focus for precip chances
for almost all of the extended forecast.

The aforementioned 700mb shortwaves will interact with the boundary
to trigger several rounds of rw/trw. With the front south of the
CWA, the best chances for storms will occur over southern portions
of the CWA. This could change as the week progresses as any shift in
the front either north or south will greatly change the areal
coverage of expected QPF.

The expected rainfall/cloud cover with the initial passage Thu-Thu
night will give the region a reprieve from the hot temps currently
forecasted, but they will slowly return for the end of the week as
the upper ridge re-amplifies.

The increase in PW values for the period to near 1.30-1.60" will
bring about locally heavy rainfall concerns and will have to be
monitored as the week progresses.

For temps, highs for Thursday and Friday will range in the 90s.
Going into the upcoming weekend, 80s are expected for Saturday and
for Sunday, a range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. By next
Monday, conditions reset to a range from the mid 90s to around 100F.

Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 60s west into the mid
70s east. For Friday night and weekend overnight lows, mainly 60s
are expected, with some locales Sunday night in the east around 70F.
Next Monday night will have a wide range from the lower to mid 60s
west of Highway 25. East of there, mid 60s to lower 70s
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through
the 06Z TAF period. South-southwesterly winds at around 6-12 knots
sustained with occasional gusts at GLD to around 20 knots will
gradually decrease overnight, then becoming south-southeasterly
in the afternoon. Have included a period of LLWS for MCK until
12Z. Continuing to monitor potential for development of storms
during the afternoon-evening. Storms may produce gusty, erratic
outflow winds; have omitted from this TAF issuance but will
assess for potential addition in later issuances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State
area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of
focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these
areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds
will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times.
There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to
northerly on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at
least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few
degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for
Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast.

                      Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           109F in 2012

Burlington CO         107F in 1954

Hill City KS          114F in 2012

McCook NE             107F in 1943

Colby KS              107F in 2012

Tribune KS            109F in 2012

Yuma CO               103F in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN