239
FXUS63 KGLD 191839
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1239 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- Better chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight
  from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

- Temperatures warming up on Thursday and Friday with low
  chances for evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
gradually expand across the area through the overnight hours.
Appears to be tied to the leading edge of weak isentropic life
overspreading the area from the south, with perhaps some weak
help from a perturbation in the southwest flow aloft. Either
way, synoptic scale lift is broad and weak. MUCAPE is around
500-1000 j/kg with some pockets of higher amounts, with no
appreciable increase forecast through today. So, with the cool
conditions and limited instability not expecting severe storms.
The signals for heavy rain have moved far to the south of the
area near the surface front, so no longer anticipating flooding
and cancelled the watch. Best chances for showers will shift
into far southwest area by late morning, then gradually spread
eastward again this afternoon. Coverage will be scattered at
best. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Tonight, expect an
increase precipitation chances this evening in northeast
Colorado and the Tri-border area, then moving into southwest
Nebraska overnight with a shortwave trough moving out of
Colorado and the front lifting north as a warm front also
providing lift. Precipitation chances should end by 12z as it
continues to move out to the north. Low temperatures will be in
the 50s to lower 60s.

For Thursday, southwest flow continues around the strong ridge
over the eastern CONUS. Main storm track with weak shortwaves
rotating around it will be from the Colorado Front Range into
western Nebraska. The northwest and northern forecast area,
Yuma County into southwest Nebraska, may get clipped by some of
these showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. However,
severe storms are not anticipated as the marginal risk stays to
the northwest. Also expecting breezy to windy conditions to
develop Thursday afternoon along the Kansas and Colorado border
area with gusts of up to 40 mph through the early evening before
diminishing. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in
the upper 80s with plenty of sun, and lows Thursday night in
the 60s.

For Friday, the upper ridge to the east does show some signs of
weakening over the area as a shortwave trough comes out of the
central Rockies in the afternoon and evening. So may see
slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms with that
feature Friday night, with best chances north of Interstate 70
including southwest Nebraska. Currently not outlooked for severe
thunderstorms due to weak instability. Appears that a weak
surface cold front will sag into the area late Friday night, but
have little impact other than a wind shift. High temperatures
will be in the lower 90s and lows Friday night in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The area will be under west-northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge axis
crosses the Rockies at the close of the weekend with high pressure
centered over the southern CONUS. Low pressure moving across
Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba will work to (briefly) flatten the
ridge, promoting more of a zonal flow, and shortwaves moving through
will keep slight chance afternoon-evening PoPs, generally around 15-
20%. Towards the latter part of the long term period, ridging again
amplifies upstream as an upper low meanders along the coast of
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

For temperatures, the warming trend continues with low-mid 90s
Sunday followed by return of near-triple digit to triple digit heat
by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be
in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through about
13z with VFR conditions after 14z. Surface winds will be from
the east at 10-15kts, highest around taf issuance for an hour or
two. After 14z, southerly winds increase with gusts up to 30kts.
Regarding precipitation chances, will remain pessimistic with
showers, maybe a thunderstorm in the vicinity from around
20z-06z. Will be monitoring for the possibility of br/fg
tonight.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 20z
with winds from the east around 11-13kts. From 21z-15z, sub VFR
cigs are expected with winds from the east to southeast at
speeds around 10kts. After 16z, VFR conditions return with winds
from the southeast, gusting up to 20kts. Regarding precipitation
chances, will remain pessimistic with showers, maybe a
thunderstorm in the vicinity from around 05z-13z. Will be
monitoring for the possibility of br/fg tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99