051
FXUS63 KGLD 032144
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
344 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening, and will be
  capable of producing hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80
  mph, and a tornado or two.

- Breezy 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #502 is in effect over the entire Tri
State area through 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT. All threats are
possible with large hail(2-3") and damaging gusts(70-80 mph) the
main ones. A brief tornado or landspout is possible as well,
along with locally heavy rainfall that may produce some
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to
mostly sunny mix as lingering/increasing cumulus remains from this
morning, and has been slowly increasing this afternoon.
Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with a
persistent southerly flow area-wide, with gusts up to 30 mph at
times.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will be the threat
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Currently there are a couple weak persistent boundaries along/north
of Highway 36, and a large front/trough over northeast Colorado just
west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties.

The latest CAMs are showing the front to the west to be the main
initiator of rw/trw. Both the HRRR and NamNest are showing a broken
line of storms developing/approaching the western CWA boundary
around 22z, potentially in 2-3 segments to start. These clusters of
storms will then push through the CWA and possibly forming into one
line around Highway 27 then push E/SE through the remainder of the
area. 40-60% chance of precip during the peak times through 03z.

The latest SPC Meso Analysis is showing 1500-3000j/kg of SBCape
already spread out over the CWA after main cloud cover dissipated
west to east by midday. DCape from Highway 27 west is ranging from
1000-1500j/kg with the highest numbers closest to the front
previously mentioned. Bulk effective shear is 30-40 knots from the
W/NW. Low level lapse rates are increasing into the 8-9C/km over
portions of the CWA, while mid level numbers are highest near
the front off west around 8-9C/km, but are slowly increasing
east towards our area.

With this, will be looking for all hazards possible for the region
through this evening. SPC still carries a Slight Risk for severe
over us with hatched hail/wind threats. Could see the wind more as
storms move east into Kansas, but hail could be the initial threat.
The difference between today and past few days is the lower levels
are not as dry, making hail more possible. Enhanced Stretching
parameter around 6 is now over the CWA, and with CAMs showing a
potential bowing structure in KS after 00z Thursday, potential for
QLCS tornadoes spin ups does exist. High PW values from 1-1.2" west
increase to 1.3-1.6" in the east, making locally heavy rainfall a
possibility. WPC carries a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall as a
result.

Looking for precip to taper from west to east between 00z-06z, with
some lingering scattered rw/trw in the east before exiting.

Thursday and Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry. There is a
low chance(15-20%) for a rw/trw in the far SW due to a weak
shortwave passage.

For temps, looking for highs on Thursday to range in the upper 70s
into the mid 80s. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the mid
50s west into the mid 60s east. For Thursday night, in the 50s area-
wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly
amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be
continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as
this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving
along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge.

Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA
for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days
looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a
stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does
appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with
shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500
j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this
time.

As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near
normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across
the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low
90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase
as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and
associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs
then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For KGLD, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential
for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected, with
VCTS potential from 23z-03z due to low confidence on timing.
Some -SHRA possible from 03z-12z Thursday. Winds, south-
southeast 15-25kts through 03z, then diminishing to 10kts. By
12z, northwest 15-25kts.

For KMCK, concerns for the forecast period will be the
potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are
expected for much of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings around
11z-14z. VCTS in from 00z-04z due to low confidence on timing.
04z-11z could have 6sm in light showers impact the terminal.
Winds, south-southeast 15-25kts through 04z Thursday, then
5-10kts. by 11z, northwest 10-20kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN