676
FXUS63 KGLD 142024
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado by mid
  afternoon, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area by 6
 PM MDT, sweeping across the rest of the area this evening.
  The primary hazard will be destructive winds in excess of 60
  mph and locally up to 90 mph. Some large hail may accompany
  initial storm development in the afternoon and early evening,
  as well as a tornado or two, before merging into clusters.
  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as well as flash
  flooding.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon
  and early evening in northwest Kansas east of a Norton to
  Leoti line. Stronger storms will be capable of hail up to
  quarter size and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 414 is now in effect through
03z Saturday for areas in northeast Colorado and adjacent KS/NE
counties(Hwy 27). Threats include 1-2" hail, winds 60-80 mph, a
few tornadoes and chance for flooding rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely from
cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection, combining with
new coverage from daytime heating already today, are providing
decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24 hours ago. As of
100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a persistent southeast
flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range at times.

Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the threat
for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening
hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25 for Saturday
afternoon/evening.

For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there is a
strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains, making a
slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east of the area,
combined with a low and associated front west, are creating a
persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in the 50s and
60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area with PW values in
the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range.

Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the Rockies by
00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the aforementioned surface
features to trigger convection.

The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time in
the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building across
northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly progressively,
clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area remains under a
Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will see all potential
threats from hail, wind and even isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding
is also a possibility. Model soundings do suggest DCape values over
1200 j/kg with inverted-v profiles. SBCape peaks early with values
initially over 2000j/kg.

The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into Saturday,
triggering some late day storms over eastern portions of the CWA.
CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing convection. A
Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result with all threats
available, especially wind and heavy rainfall. Zonal flow ensues
Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from west to east into
Sunday morning.

For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above
normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along and
south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to mid 60s east
of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period, slightly warmer with
lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid to upper 60s east of
there.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% chance of
precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing highly organized
is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday
afternoon. Around that time, the pressure gradient tightens up as
the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland, moving the jet
stream fairly close, if not over, the High Plains. This would work
to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs.
furthermore, at 850mb, the high pressure system over Texas today
looks to stall out over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel
moisture into the region Tuesday through Saturday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s to low
100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the upper 80s and
90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only warm into the 80s
and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern
and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights, and then
cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts
Sunday night through Tuesday morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s
also worth noting that while the cooler temperatures look nice on
the thermometer, the additional moisture will make the region feel
more muggy and soupy than normal.

Monday could see some localized critical fire weather conditions in
the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust near 25-30 kts
while RH values get into the upper teens. This is really the best
chance for critical fire weather conditions as the additional
moisture will keep min RH values above 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through 00z Saturday, then a MVFR/VFR
mix through 06z as rw/trw are expected. 4-6sm visibility
reduction in rain, with ceilings down to OVC025 at times. VFR
after 06z Saturday. Winds, mainly south-southeast 10-15kts.
Gusts to 25kts through 00z. Winds briefly go to southwest
15-25kts from 00z-03z. LLWS 03z-06z Saturday 200@40kts.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions at this time. The threat for
storms after 00z Saturday could bring in MVFR conditions from
03z-06z. VCTS possible through at least 02z-06z. Winds, south-
southeast 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts through 02z Saturday. LLWS
02z-06z Saturday 210@60kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN