297
FXUS63 KGLD 231007
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for
  eastern Colorado early this morning, potentially allowing for
  some patches of frost.

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be
keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 70s. Winds will be light and southerly for most of the day,
until the afternoon when a very weak surface low will cause winds in
the eastern CWA to become northerly. By 0Z, the low will have
dissipated and southerly winds will be returning.

Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front,
starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring
in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a
low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into
Missouri. The additional cloud cover will keep overnight
temperatures near 50. The sprinkles are most likely to occur near a
line from Hill City, KS to Trenton, NE between 6Z and 18Z. These
sprinkles are not expected to amount to measurable precipitation.

By Wednesday 0Z, we will be seeing northerly flow throughout the
column with the low to our east and a developing high to the west.
This pattern will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This will clear out the sky again, allowing temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday night to cool into the lower to mid 40s. Day time heating
will capitalize on the clear skies, with Tuesday warming into the
mid to upper 70s with Wednesday warming to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, a giant ridge extending
across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega
pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows
developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the
side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. This
pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most likely
through early next week. There is a cutoff system that sets up over
the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system does meander and
retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential
for some increased moisture to work towards the eastern CWA, but the
overall trend keeps this east of the area.

Temperatures throughout the long term are expected to be slightly
above average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been
fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight
lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-04z, winds establish a southwesterly direction at
speeds up to 10kts, backing to the southeast at similar speeds.
After 05z, winds become light and variable.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a southerly
component at speeds under 10kts from 18z-23z. After 00z, winds
back to the southeast at speeds around 6kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99