038
FXUS63 KGLD 230943
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
343 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for
  eastern Colorado early Monday morning, potentially allowing
  for some patches of frost.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current observations show the elongated upper low over the area as
satellite shows clouds swirling over the area. The precipitation has
largely moved out of the area, but could see a few additional
showers in Eastern Colorado before the afternoon ends. Otherwise,
temperatures are warming to the mid to upper 50`s with a few breaks
in the cloud cover.

This evening and through the night, the upper low is forecast to
continue to shift further east and help bring in drier air in the
mid-levels which will clear the cloud cover out across the area.
While the skies are clearing, the surface winds are forecast to
become light as the pressure gradient weakens heavily. With the
clear skies and light winds, lows are forecast to drop into the
upper 30`s and 40`s, near the dewpoints. There is still a very low
chance for patches of frost in Eastern Colorado as temps drop into
the 30`s. However, the recent rains are forecast to keep dewpoints a
bit higher in the mid to upper 30`s, which will limit the chance for
temps to drop to or below 36. If the winds are a bit higher than
forecast, there is a chance that drier air can mix in and help lower
temps to the mid 30`s.

Tomorrow, a sunny day is forecast with dry air across the area. With
the clear skies and relatively light winds, temperatures should be
fairly warm in the mid to upper 70`s.

Tomorrow evening, another shortwave is forecast to move through the
Plains from the north and help bring some mid-level moisture and
forcing. However, the dry air near the surface is forecast to limit
the area to just an increase in cloud coverage and maybe some virga.
Lows are forecast to be near 50 with the increase in cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, a giant ridge extending
across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega
pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows
developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the
side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. This
pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most likely
through early next week. There is a cutoff system that sets up over
the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system does meander and
retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential
for some increased moisture to work towards the eastern CWA, but the
overall trend keeps this east of the area.

Temperatures throughout the long term are expected to be slightly
above average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been
fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight
lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-04z, winds establish a southwesterly direction at
speeds up to 10kts, backing to the southeast at similar speeds.
After 05z, winds become light and variable.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a southerly
component at speeds under 10kts from 18z-23z. After 00z, winds
back to the southeast at speeds around 6kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99