Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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235 FXUS63 KGRB 092303 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly tonight with patchy/areas of frost over north-central Wisconsin. - Next round of active weather Tuesday afternoon. Next chance for more widespread thunder could be Wednesday evening. - Below normal temperatures today through Tuesday with a warm-up expected mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Monday Main focus of the short term forecast will be on overnight low temperatures. A fast moving shortwave brought widespread cloud cover into the area this afternoon, along with some gusty winds to around 25 mph. A few sprinkles were reported in the Upper Peninsula early this afternoon, and a few sprinkles may yet work their way into northern Wisconsin near the Michigan border, but would not expect any drizzle to make its way any further south than that. As the shortwave clears the area this evening, rapid clearing in cloud cover is expected across the region as much drier air arrives. Between the departing clouds, slackening winds, and falling dewpoints a fairly favorable setup for radiational cooling is expected, so overnight low temperatures will drop fairly quickly, especially across the north. With decent chunks of north-central WI expected to get into the middle 30s, decided on a frost advisory for the overnight hours. Dry and quiet conditions then persist through Monday, making for a fairly quiet day in the region. Sunny skies and high temperatures into the upper 60s to middle 70s are expected. Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday The main focus of the extended period will be on the upcoming precipitation chances for the work week which will be in a fairly active pattern. The first chance for precipitation in the extended period will cross the area Tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave arrives behind the departing upper ridge. A narrow plume of moisture and warmth along and ahead of the shortwave could support some scattered precipitation. Instability however looks fairly meager, with tall skinny profiles on the soundings, so while brief thunder is possible, severe weather is not expected. Any precipitation will be fairly short-lived however, as the rain departs east rapidly. Progressive flow brings the next round through later in the day on Wednesday as another shortwave and frontal system cross the area. Models continue to suggest initial development west of the region and then bring things eastwards from there. Timing and placement of the shortwave remain uncertain at this time however, as the stronger storms may yet remain south of the area. Still, given the potential for instability and decent shear Wednesday night, will need to monitor late Wednesday for potential severe weather. Finally, models do bring additional development late in the week along the cold front from Wednesday, but the timing and placement of any additional showers will largely be dependent upon where the front from Wednesday lingers around the end of the week. Temperatures will remain cool early in the week before warming up over the next couple of days. How warm we get will depend on how much cold air comes in behind the active weather during the week, but at least some areas getting to the 80s seems reasonable. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Skies will clear from north to south this evening, pushing a VFR/MVFR stratus deck south of the region. This will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for the rest of tonight and into Monday as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes region. Gusty N-NW winds will ease this evening and become light as the aforementioned high builds towards the area. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ005-010>012- 018. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kurimski