Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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674 FXUS63 KGRB 250959 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 459 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected this morning on Lake Michigan. - Some rivers and streams will remain above bankfull and near flood stage into the middle of the week. - Next period of significant rain and chances for storms arrives on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 459 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Lingering showers and storms will exit the area early this morning, with quieter weather expected the next couple of days. Next round of showers and storms arrives on Friday into Saturday. Showers and storms will end by around 12z. It is looking mainly dry for the rest of today into tonight, but will carry a small chance for a shower or sprinkle across mainly central WI later this afternoon and evening as a weak boundary drops across the state. Instability looks pretty meager, so while a stray rumble of thunder can`t be rule out, will not include. Models try to generate some showers on Wednesday, as a shortwave crosses the area, along with a weak boundary. Will throw in a slight chance for showers to cover this threat. Quiet conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure slides over the Great Lakes. The next chance for widespread showers and storms arrives Friday into Saturday as a frontal system and shortwave trough push across the region. Two waves of precip look to occur. First with a leading shortwave, moisture advection and LLJ on Friday. Then a second chance with a deeper trough late Friday into early Saturday (if timing holds). Overall instability look to be limited due to cloud cover, so the severe weather threat looks to be low. PWATs of around 2" will bring the threat for heavy rain and some minor flooding. Another system may bring showers and storms to the region early in the next work week. Highs today look to be in the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. It will be a little cooler on Wednesday with some highs in the upper 60s over far northern WI, with 70s elsewhere. Temps the rest of the week and weekend look to average near to slightly below normal. It will remain on the humid side today, with less humid conditions arriving tonight into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Some showers and storms will continue to develop ahead of a strengthening complex of storms that will push across the area during the early morning hours. Storms will produce damaging winds, hail and torrential downpours. Some LLWS will be possible, when surface winds drop below 15 kts, ahead of the complex of storms as a LLJ works into the area. Will need to monitor for a wake low behind the complex of storms, which could produce strong easterly winds. Some low clouds could linger through around 15z on Tuesday, longest over east-central WI. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions on Tuesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ022- 040-050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......Bersch