Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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189 FXUS63 KGRB 260006 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 706 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Some rivers and streams will remain above bankfull and near flood stage into the middle of the week. - Next period of significant rain and chances for storms arrives on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday Much quieter conditions are expected for the middle of the week as high pressure begins to build into the region through the rest of the day today and much of Wednesday. The only interruption may be a fast moving shortwave, which may bring just enough impetus to produce a few showers across northern Wisconsin Wednesday morning. That said, with much drier air moving into the region, would expect any sprinkles to struggle to reach the surface, so most of the area will likely remain dry. Temperatures this afternoon will be the last of the 80s for a couple of days. High temperatures on Wednesday will likely be in the 70s as the cooler air under the high pressure arrives. Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The main focus of the extended forecast will be on the next weather system Friday, which could potentially bring another round of heavier rainfall. Cool and dry conditions will persist across the region Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Attention then turns to the next active weather system for early Friday as return flow ramps up once again. The main concern with this system will be the surge of moisture into the region bringing PWATS to around 2 inches for much of Friday. As a result, additional heavy rainfall will be possible, which will keep river running near or above bankfull through the weekend. Fortunately, the early arrival of the rain will also help mitigate any instability development, which in turn should keep severe weather out of the forecast. Any thunder that does develop in the afternoon may still bring brief flooding concerns, especially if the heavier rainfall starts trending further northwards. Another wide ridge will follow on the heels of this system, which will bring back dry conditions for most of the weekend along with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s through early next week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 706 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Any lingering high-based cumulus clouds will dissipate through early evening, with only a few higher clouds expected the rest of the evening. A thicker batch of mid and high clouds looks to spread across the region later tonight into Wednesday morning. These mid and high clouds will exit Wednesday morning, but cumulus will develop through the morning and continue into the afternoon. Could get a few sprinkles or showers from these clouds as a weak boundary drops through the area, but it appears conditions will stay VFR. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Bersch