328
FXUS63 KGRR 151124
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
724 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and dry pattern continues

- The dry pattern is forecast to continue into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

- Very warm and dry pattern continues

Fair very warm and dry wx will continue today into early next week
as mid/upper level ridging continues. 00Z HREF cloud cover
guidance suggests that we will only have some sct high cloud cover
today.

High temps today will once again reach well into the 80s even near
the Lake MI shoreline given the east to southeast offshore winds
and slight downslope effects. Mins tonight will mostly be in the
mid to upper 50`s with high temps Monday once again reaching well
into the 80s. An overall consensus blend of latest medium range
guidance continues to suggest that dry wx should continue through
the rest of the week along with a continuation of warm conditions.

- The dry pattern is forecast to continue into next weekend

Based on the ensemble qpf forecasts and latest deterministic model
guidance, it`s still looking dry into next weekend.  However, there
has been a trend toward more moisture advecting in from the east
southeast. PWAT`s are trending up for the middle of the week.  There
has been a slight increase in the ensemble members from the various
models showing qpf in the Tuesday night to Thursday period. Overall
though, most members remain dry. The GFS has been the most aggressive
with the moisture and precipitation risk here in MI, but the
Canadian and ECMWF remain dry. The GFS has not shown good continuity
and there is a lot of spread it`s ensemble precipitation amounts.
For now, we will maintain a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather for
MI through the period. This feature will keep the skies relatively
clear and winds mostly under 10 knots. Peak winds will be in the
afternoon hours as that`s when the mixing height will be the
deepest. Any patchy morning fog will dissipate quickly leading to
VFR conditions. Another round of patchy fog is possible later
tonight as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Minimal wave heights of two feet or less are forecast today into
early next week given weak offshore easterly winds mostly in the 5
to 15 kt range (or less). In fact tranquil conditions on Lake MI
will continue through the upcoming week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Laurens