Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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808 FXUS63 KGRR 231733 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry Today - Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday - Low chance of rain during the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Dry Today High pressure fills in on the backside of the system low that brought much needed rainfall yesterday. Expect dry conditons today with temperatures in the 70s. Another round of showers looks likely Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning as a surface low associated with an upper shortwave tracks through Lower Michigan. - Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday The high amplitude upper trough and associated surface low will be moving northeast across the cwa Tuesday night. We`ll see highest PoPs Tuesday evening as the low moves across the cwa. However, once the low moves into northern Lower, the precipitation will end quickly. The upper trough is progd to be sheared off Wednesday with a cutoff low meandering over the ArkLaTex area and a ridge building into the Great Lakes from the west. That will produce dry and sunny conditions Wednesday through Friday. Above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are anticipated; dewpoints in the 50s will make for comfortable conditions. - Low chance of rain during the weekend An interesting setup is developing for the weekend. Models are showing a sizable hurricane in the Gulf moving north toward the FL panhandle and getting caught up in the upper level circulation of the meandering ArkLaTex upper low. That essentially pushes what`s left of the tropical system north through the TN and OH Valleys. There`s still a lot of uncertainty to this situation and although the models show much of the precipitation falling well south of Michigan, some may sneak north into the southern cwa. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Stratus with origins from Lake Huron with the flow from the NE has been over most of the terminals since this morning after clouds had briefly cleared out. This stratus is eroding at the edges from the North and is lifting elsewhere. We do expect conditions to improve gradually through sunset, with the eastern sites likely keeping the clouds in, even if they go VFR. Overnight, clouds will thicken up again where they are able to clear out. A few rain showers will become possible after 06-08z, with more widespread showers moving in after that. Low clouds and mist with also move in across the area bringing conditions down to LIFR-VLIFR. Once these conditions move in late tonight/Tuesday morning, it will likely stick around for the remainder of this forecast period through 18z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Wind and waves will diminish through this morning at which point the SCA and Beach Hazards will expire. Once waves diminish, offshore winds today will keep marine conditions quiet. Waves may subtly spike Tuesday to 1 to 2 feet, but don`t anticipate any marine headlines at the moment. Few showers with embedded thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/Thielke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Thielke