056
FXUS63 KGRR 150511
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
111 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Confidence in Continued Warm and Dry Through Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

- High Confidence in Continued Warm and Dry Through Next Week

Mid to upper level ridging will keep conditions quiet through
early next week, but as the remnants of Francine track into the
Carolinas the upper ridge will begin to flatten. As the remnant
low attempts to traverse into the Ohio Valley, the stagnant
anomalously strong ridge should fend off incoming moisture, but a
few GFS and Euro ensemble members suggest a potential for rain
showers Wednesday and/or Thursday. The majority of members keep
conditions dry, so will continue with a dry forecast.

Dry conditions with above normal warmth (forecast highs: low 80s,
normal highs: mid 70s) continue into the end of next week thanks to
deep troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the eastern
CONUS. CPC 8-14 day outlook favors above normal temps to end the
month with a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While patchy fog could form once again toward daybreak, confidence
on it occurring at one of the TAF sites is low at this time. We do
have a little more wind as compared to last night, which may act
to limit the fog potential. Crossover temperatures also don`t
favor widespread fog, but we will maintain monitoring trends
through the night. Dry conditions continue through a deep layer of
the atmosphere today, but near KMKG we`ll see some upper level
clouds rolling in at times. Surface wind gusts could once again
occur this afternoon with values near 15 knots expected. An
onshore wind will likely set up this afternoon, which would impact
the KMKG TAF site.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Surface ridging continues at least into Tuesday across Southern
and Central Lake Michigan. Therefore, light winds (5-15 knots or
less) and limited wave action (0-2 feet) are expected. In fact, we
do not see a stronger wind / higher wave event through the
upcoming week. The placid conditions on the big lake will dominate
as will the excellent boating weather (warm and dry). Summer
lingers...

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke/Thielke
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Duke