Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
053 FXUS62 KGSP 191820 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 220 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The limited coverage of any showers and storms on Friday afternoon will be confined to the mountains. Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. Temperatures will be above normal through the weekend then closer to normal through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated showers are developing across the NC mtn ridges currently and expect activity to persist into the evening hours. These cells have been very short-lived, barely a scan or two, as dry n/ly air abv h85 is pushing in. Soundings show cooling h5 temps this afternoon and LFCs easily reached, however, sbCAPE will remain generally under 500 J/kg. This will be enuf instability to produce a few general thunderstorms capable of producing high rainfall rates as PWAT values remain abv 1.2 inches. A hydro threat is not great tho as a modest steering flow will continue moving storms along. Overnight temps will drop into the u50s across the mtns and crossover temps will likely be reached or exceeded possibly leading to the formation of dense fog across the mtn valleys and east within the adjacent foothill lowlands. A drier day is on tap for Fri with less cloud cover as deep subsidence increases from the west and hipres dominates at the sfc. There may be some limited convective activity across the mtns due to ridge top convg, but coverage of precip will be low-end due to the aforementioned subs and mlvl warming. Highs Fri will likely reach a couple cats abv normal across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge will be dominating the Southern Plains as we move into the short term, with trough in place over the East Coast. With heights rising through the period, increasing subsidence will generally keep pops out of the forecast, but a weak shortwave moving down the northerly flow aloft may bring just a bit of moisture to the area briefly Saturday night, so cannot rule out some showery activity in the NW NC Piedmont. Bigger story will be the temperatures increasing through the period, with temperatures trending upwards both Saturday and Sunday, uncomfortably unseasonably warm with highs approaching mid 90s in the Upper Savannah by Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge axis pushes closer to us and the upper trough begins to lift out. Elevated dewpoints underneath the increased ridging aloft will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper ridge will continue to push east as we move into the extended, eventually flattening and shifting slightly south as a mid-level low works its way out of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains. A stronger system passing across southern Canada will drag a cold front across the Great Lakes on Sunday, approaching the OH Valley late in the weekend and eventually toward the Southern Appalachians as we begin the new work week, bringing a return of pops to the mountains. Timing this far out is uncertain, and the first round of precip may dry up before the secondary round associate with the Northern Plains wave moves in Tue-Wed. High temperatures will be knocked back down closer to seasonal normals with the increasing clouds and precipitation, though increasing moisture will keep overnight lows above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds will continue across all sites this evening, except at KCLT where BKN MVFR may persist off and on over the next couple hours. Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms will develop across the mtns, but confidence is too low for a precip/vsby mention at KAVL and KHKY. Good rad cooling overnight will help develop fog, possibly VLIFR, at KAVL and KHKY, while MVFR restrictions due to VSBY and CIGs is possible at KCLT arnd and thru daybreak. VFR conds return all sites aft 14z and continue thru the period. Winds remain aligned generally ne/ly and low-end. Outlook: No appreciable return of moisture or precip chances expected until early to middle of next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...SBK SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM...TDP AVIATION...SBK