Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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566 FXUS62 KGSP 161443 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1043 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through much of the week keeping temperatures above normal. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Then drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10:35 AM Sunday: A few spotty showers linger across the northern zones, while an area of low clouds has expanded across the NC Piedmont. Satellite imagery indicates this cloud cover is quite thick, and so should be enough to shave a couple of degrees off max temps in those areas this afternoon. Otherwise, expansive upper ridging will continue to build over the eastern CONUS thru the near-term period with the center of the anti- cyclone expected to be over the Carolinas for much of the period. At the sfc, high pressure currently centered over New England will slide SE and off the coast later today allowing our low-level flow to become increasingly SELY as the day progresses. This will help moisten profiles across our western zones and also enhance upslope flow into the Blue Ridge escarpment. Thus, we should see better coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening compared to the past few days, especially over the mtns and western Upstate/NE Georgia. With sbCAPE expected to max out in the 2000-2500 J/kg range this afternoon, several strong storms can be expected, and can`t rule out a brief pulse severe storm or two. Heavy downpours can also be expected due to slow cell movement in the moist environment. Temperatures should not be quite as warm today, although highs are still likely to exceed 90 degrees across most of the Upstate and NE Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: The center of a large upper level anticyclone will drift from the Carolinas to near NYC by 12z Wednesday. This will place the forecast area on the easterly flow side of the circulation. Enough moisture will linger for diurnal convection to form across mainly the mountains Monday, but severe threat will remain low. The day will start out with some stratus/stratocu, but should scatter out by the aftn. Overall, temps will be held to near normal, despite starting out warm. On Tuesday, dry air rotating in from the NE and subsidence will combine to preclude deep convection. Temps will be a deg or two above normal, generally upper 80s Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday: The strong 500 mb anticyclone may reach 600 dam over the mid-Atlantic region by Thursday, resulting oppressive heat to our north. Subsidence and dry air will result in dry conditions and above normal temps across the forecast area thru at least Thursday. Perhaps a few ridge-top showers and general thunderstorms may form Friday, but the latest guidance has been trending drier. The one feature to watch is an easterly/tropical wave that some of the deterministic models form a weak tropical cyclone from east of FL. This wave is expected to track westward under the upper high just to our south, but some of that moisture could brush our area Thursday into Thursday night. The upper high will weaken and begin to drift south by Saturday, with building heat and humidity across the region. The mid-level inversion may weaken enough and combined with good insolation for a return of typical late June diurnal convection Saturday and Sunday. Highs will likely be in the mid 90s across the Piedmont and upper 80s to near 90 in the mountain valleys. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: We`re still seeing sct to bkn debris clouds lingering over the area this morning, but all taf sites remain VFR except for some MVFR cigs that have just moved over KCLT. I`ll handle that with a TEMPO for the first couple hrs of the taf. Fog has yet to develop near any of our taf sites, only in some of the more fog-prone mtn valleys. Otherwise, chances for sct diurnal SHRA/TSRA will be some- what better today than the past few days. Still anticipate coverage being better over the NC mtns and SC Upstate with showers possibly lingering well into the night and even overnight. Thus, I included PROB30s for TSRA at KAVL and the Upstate terminals beginning around 20z. For KCLT, I left out any mention of convection as it appears less likely over that area. In addition, much of the latest guidance has lower cigs spreading over the area Monday morning. Thus, I lower cigs beginning around 08z Monday at all taf sites. Otherwise, winds will favor a SE to NE direction thru the morning (if not VRB at times) and then favor a SE direction for the rest of the period. Outlook: Moist SELY low-level flow will persist thru Monday, helping support another round of diurnal SHRA/TSRA. An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly dry/VFR conditions Tuesday thru Thursday, however nocturnal fog/stratus could develop early each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARK NEAR TERM...JDL/JPT SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...JPT