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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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396 FXUS62 KGSP 240610 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 210 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area early this morning leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the mountains. Drier and less humid conditions return behind the front this afternoon into Tuesday. Humidity returns again on Wednesday and lingers through the weekend. Another cold front will track across the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing better shower and thunderstorm chances. Showers and thunderstorm chances may Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 150 AM: Patch of showers with a few embedded lightning strikes is moving over the SW NC mountains attm, driven by weak cold front. This activity will run into more stable air as it pushes into the foothills, although in short term progs, some moisture pooling is evident near the front, and at least slight MUCAPE looks to linger until drying occurs aloft behind the front. Downslope flow will also be a limiting factor, and thus it is not much of a surprise that CAMs depict the current activity fizzling before it reaches the I-85 corridor. Did keep a slight-chance shower/t-storm mention northwest thereof, particularly in NE GA and the western Upstate where some showers might "sneak around" the mountains. These chances advect southeast and gradually diminish with time such that precip should be pretty much over for the lower elevations by sunrise. Some low cloud cover and spotty showers are seen over the Cumberland Plateau/Mountains, and with upslope moisture remaining, saw fit to keep small PoPs until 8-9 AM along the TN border. In reality, this isn`t so much a cold front as it is more of a dry front, which is typical for this area at this time of year. Behind the boundary, a sfc high will build in thru afternoon from the NW on the strength of an upstream ridge. The upshot is that temps today might ultimately be similar to Sunday afternoon, but the RH should be noticeably less (and less than we expected a few days ago), such that apparent temps should stay well below the Heat Index criteria. Precip chances will also be limited to a slight chance over the eastern-most zones in the middle part of the day before the boundary moves off toward the Coastal Plain in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday...Upper heights will begin to rise early Tue which will support a Canadian sfc high to the north. This high will dominate the weather into Wed as it becomes reinforced and ridges down the east coast. Relatively dry and cool air will mix in, but still expect deep subs to allow for temps in the l90s east of the mtns and u80s across the mtn valleys. Soundings show mixing into the drier air aloft which will help keep sfc dwpts in the u50s to l60s and HI values below adv criteria. The atmos becomes more dynamic early Wed as a pos tilted h5 s/w pushes in from the west. This wave will likely produce sct showers and a few general to strong tstms across the NC mtns with isol activity east thru the day. Rainfall amts will be modest and wont make much of a dent in the below normal precip amounts received this month. Surface dewps will bump up in this environ ahead of the front and along with temps reaching the mid to upper 90s east of the mtns, heat index values could rise into advisory levels across the Lakelands. Overnight temps will remain rather warm with mins held abt 5-7 degrees abv normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 205 PM Sunday...An upper trof axis continues to cross the area Wed night which will likely maintain chance thunder across the NC mtns and isolated storms east. With high pressure pushing a llvl convg zone into the area during the afternoon, expect another round of tstms across the NC mtns. Meanwhile, heights will rise as a subTrop ridge builds in from the west. This neg forcing will help keep tstm strength in the general category Thu afternoon and again Fri afternoon when the llvl flow brings in an upslope e/ly se/ly flow. The building ridge dominates the pattern into the weekend and makes for a summertime pattern with PoPs a little below climo and temps remaining above normal. Expect highs in the m90s each afternoon and lows likely held a couple cats abv normal. Heat indices look to remain below adv level Thu and Fri, yet may reach criteria Sat as dewpts surge ahead of a sfc front approaching from the northwest Sat night. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Weak sfc front to cross the terminal area early this morning. This will bring an area of SHRA near KAVL and potentially KGSP/KGMU/KAND before dawn. An isolated TSRA is additionally possible, but confidence only high enough to mention this at KAVL. Lower VFR clouds will develop as the front passes the terminals, with a small chance of MVFR at KAVL as well. Winds will shift to NW after the fropa, but not expected to occur at KCLT until diurnal mixing begins around 13z. A very small chance of diurnal convection exists well south of KCLT and the SC sites today, but otherwise post-frontal drying and subsidence is expected to result in just cumulus. Development of easterly flow tonight could lead to some low VFR stratocu near KCLT/KHKY but of low impact. Brief mountain valley fog not out of the question at KAVL after 06z Tue. Outlook: Dry weather and suppressed convection again Tuesday. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may return as soon as Wed aftn/evening, with seasonable summertime weather returning then and continuing into the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...Wimberley