738
FXUS62 KGSP 170601
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through
much of the week keeping temperatures above normal. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon, but drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1:15 AM Monday...We`re still seeing a few isolated showers
across our area but they continue to diminish. Decent cloud cover
overnight will likely limit the fog threat and keep low temps a
couple of categories above normal. Nonetheless, some patchy dense
fog is possible, mainly across the mtn valleys and where the heavier
rain fell.

Otherwise, the upper anticyclone will begin wobbling northeast and
away from the area on Monday, but will still remain the dominant
synoptic-scale feature impacting the sensible weather across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, sfc ridge extending from
strong high over the northwest Atlantic will build more strongly
into our CWA, which will act to begin advecting lower theta-E air
into the eastern zones throughout the day. Deep layer/mean cloud
bearing flow is also forecast to become increasingly weak...less
than 5 kts by Monday afternoon. The lower instability and weak
steering flow suggests mountain diurnal convection is more likely
to stay confined there on Monday, and PoPs range from 50/60% across
the mtns, to barely slight chance across the Piedmont. Instability
will again be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm or
two, but locally heavy/perhaps excessive rainfall may become more
of a threat owing to the expectation of even slow cell motion. Max
temps are forecast to be 0 to 2 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout
Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep
convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower
chances.  Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl
easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain
progged to be just around climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the
southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid-
Atlantic coast to start off the period.  Essentially a persistance
forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed atmosphere with high
temperatures right around the mid-June climo.  Upper ridging will be
breaking down on Friday, and as the llvl flow veers to southerly,
expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s
will be possible for maximums, and as the atmosphere becomes weakly
unstable, a few diurnally fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures
will continue to warm throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the
mean lvll flow around developing Bermuda high pressure.  Piedmont
temperatures could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: We`re still seeing some isolated showers
across our area but they continue to diminish. I kept a VCSH for
the next few hrs at all of the terminals (except KAND) for any
lingering showers that may impact the sites. Otherwise, lower
clouds move in from the SE overnight as robust Atlantic high
pressure keeps moist low-level flow over our region. MVFR cigs
are likely before daybreak all sites with IFR cigs and MVFR
visby possible at KHKY and KAVL. It will likely take a little
while for the lower clouds to lift/sct out with some sites
possibly holding lower cigs until noon or so. Winds will remain
light to calm thru the morning and pick up modestly from the SE
again this afternoon.

Outlook: An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly
dry/VFR conditions Tuesday thru Thursday, although early morning
fog/stratus could develop each day, mainly in the mtn valleys.
Diurnal convection could return to the area on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JPT