361
FXUS62 KGSP 310506
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
106 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures slightly below
normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our
east late Saturday, we should see a gradual warm up with a return of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, typical of
early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...No sigfnt changes made to the fcst. Did increase
cloud cover across the Upstate and ern NC Piedmont as mlvl clouds
persist associated with a weak back-door bndry.

Expecting another uneventful near term period. Omega block will
continue although the whole pattern will progress slowly eastward
thru Friday. This will bring us out from under the trough and more
under the influence of the ridge and attendant dry sfc high
expanding out of the Ohio Valley. The high will tighten the
gradient, amplifying winds slightly in the Piedmont late tonight and
turning them toward the NE. Dewpoints will dip further overnight, so
no fog expected again Friday morning; mins will be 5-7 degrees below
normal. Expect fewer cumulus on Friday with deeper/stronger
subsidence aloft and the sfc drying. Max temps overall will be a few
below normal--perhaps trending a degree or two cooler in our eastern
zones, and a degree or two warmer in our southwest compared to
today, reflecting the thickness pattern. Minimum RH Friday will be
quite low for the end of May, below 30 percent in the Piedmont
northeast of I-26. Winds however look to mix out to just a few mph
by the time the RH bottoms out, so not anticipating any fire danger
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM EDT Thursday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with upper trofing moving off the Atlantic Coast and upper
ridging sliding in behind it over our area. Over the next couple of
days, the upper ridge will gradually weaken as a robust upper short-
wave lifts up and over the ridge. By the end of the period late Sunday,
the ridge will essentially be gone, with nearly zonal upper flow over
the Southeast. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just
to our north as the period begins late Friday. Over the next 24 to
36 hrs, the high will migrate SE and off the SE Coast. This will put
our region back in a more typical summertime pattern by the end of
the period. Thus, Saturday still looks mostly dry with temperatures
still slightly below normal for late May. PoPs ramp up on Sunday with
more moist, SLY flow in place and a weak cold front moving thru our
area during the aftn/evening. Temps should be very similar to Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EDT Thursday: The medium range forecast picks up at 00z
on Monday with flat/weak upper ridging over the Southeast. Over the
next few days, heights will slowly rise as upper ridging builds over
the eastern CONUS and upper trofing approaches the Great Lakes from
the west. Most of the long-range guidance now has this upper trof
morphing into a closed h5 low by the time it reaches the Great Lakes.
This will act to suppress the upper ridge over our area towards the
end of the period. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be moving back
over Bermuda by the start of the period. This will put our area back
under warm and moist SLY low-level flow for the duration of the period.
By the end of the period next Thursday, a weak cold front will likely
approach the Western Carolinas from the west, but any impacts from it
would be just beyond day 7 at this time. As for the sensible wx, we
can expect an early summer-like pattern with predominately diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day with slightly above PoPs each day.
Temperatures will start out a few degrees above climatology and will
approach 90 degrees across most of the non-mountain zones by the end
of the period next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry again through the 00Z TAF period
thanks to dry sfc high pressure. Still seeing some VFR stratocu
lingering across KAVL, KGSP and KGMU this evening but this should
continue to gradually thin out over the next hour or two. VFR cirrus
looks to impact the terminals overnight into Friday, with no cumulus
expected to develop Friday afternoon, except maybe over the SW NC
mtns. Winds are mainly light and calm as of 0120Z. Winds should turn
NE east of the mtns overnight into Friday morning before turning
ENE/E Friday afternoon. Winds at KAVL will start out WNW before
turning SE late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Winds will
generally be light through the period but should increase slightly
around daybreak Friday.

Outlook: VFR and dry weather through Saturday. Convective chances
return late this weekend and will linger into next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...AR