416
FXUS62 KGSP 271123
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
723 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms early this morning with another round
possible Monday afternoon with a cold front. Cooler and drier
conditions return Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday: The line of convection has weakened
significantly as it crosses the Southern Appalachians, as
expected. But the southern edge of the line in NE GA is just
strong enough such that re-intensification is possible, as it moves
into the southern part of the forecast area. Latest mesoanalysis
shows about 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective
shear. So after collaboration with SPC and neighboring offices,
have issued a Severe Tstm Watch 332 for Franklin GA to Laurens, SC
and counties south. The convection heading toward the Greenville
area may strengthen as well, but confidence is too low on that
happening within the next hour to warrant a watch. Counties can
be added further north and east, if needed.

Otherwise, in the wake of the QLCS remnants, expect widespread
debris cloudiness and lingering light rain. Indications are that
the precip and clouds will break up early enough in the day to allow
some air mass recovery. The RAP still shows muCAPE climbing back up
to the 2500-3000 J/kg range in the late afternoon, along with 30-35
kt of deep layer/cloud layer shear. If that is indeed the case,
then scattered thunderstorms could develop mainly east of the mtns,
and pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Coverage on
the CAMs is relatively widely scattered, but a few severe storms
will not be ruled out. Temps will top out maybe a few deg above
normal assuming the clouds break early enough in the day. The deep
convection should move off to the east by mid-evening or so.

For tonight, we should have more quiet weather. Can`t rule out a few
showers in the westerly upslope areas along the TN border. Drying
aloft suggests some fog potential, also assuming some locations
get the rain late in the day. Low temps should cool off a bit,
but still above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Monday: Kicking off a quieter stretch Tuesday as the
surface cold front heads out to sea and drier air filters in behind.
The upper low continues to lift toward the NE. Meanwhile, an omega
blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps trough toward the
north of the CWA. The pressure gradient is not anticipated to be
tight, so some low-end wind gusts possible across the higher
elevations through the end of the period. Guidance from the GFS and
Euro does suggest a stray shower across the far northern NC
mountains Tuesday afternoon, but models have also been trending
drier over the past few forecast cycles. So confidence is very low.
Upper flow should start to turn more NW by Wednesday night as the
ridge axis over the central plains moves eastward. Will keep non-
zero PoPs at this point. Temps will be warmest Tuesday during the
short term and decrease closer to climo by Wednesday. Overnight
temps will also be on the decline Wednesday night as drier air
continues to move in and drop dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Sunday: By Thursday, a semi-strong omega blocking
pattern continues over the CONUS, leaving the CWA in a weakening NW
flow regime. Thursday and Friday will remain dry as heights begin to
rise gradually as the ridge axis out west approaches the area. By
Saturday, the axis will be over the CWA and also dry. Guidance does
start to diverge on the next potential chance for showers. The Euro
develops a weak upper low and trough that approaches the area by
Sunday. However, the GFS keeps this weakened low from really forming
and prevents any rainfall from reaching the CWA through the end of
the forecast period. Either way, there`s very little confidence in
this as we start to transition into a more summer like pattern. So
for now, consider the extended forecast dry and warm. Temperatures
should remain close to climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A line of convection continues to weaken
as it crosses the mountains. However, the southern end of the
line is holding up enough such that confidence is increasing
that TSRA will impact the Upstate sites and potentially CLT later
this morning. Will continue to handle that convection with TEMPO
groups. From there, the air mass will take some time to recover
enough instability for aftn convection. Will continue the PROB30
groups for now, but if trends in latest guidance hold, we may be
able to drop most TS mention with later AMDs. Otherwise, a low-VFR
cig is exepcted for most of the day with SW winds picking up with
some low-end gusts thru the day. Winds should become light, then
toggle to WNW or NW overnight, as a cold front pushes in. Guidance
is not too excited about fog and/or stratus, despite decoupling
winds and clearing skies. That may be due to a combination of less
aftn/eve precip and dry air filtering in behind the front.

Outlook: Drier weather is expected Tuesday thru the end of the
week with VFR conditions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK