Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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587 FXUS62 KGSP 300122 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 922 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 920 PM EDT Wednesday: Main change needed this update was increasing cloud cover across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area as scattered to broken cirrus continue tracking overhead. The cirrus should push east of the area within the next few hours. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the period as a dry cold front slips south and east. Otherwise, omega block remains in full force across the eastern CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the upper OH Valley and Northeast, with nearly cutoff embedded shortwave spinning over Pennsylvania. Deep mixing will result in low-end wind gusts through this evening, mainly across the mtns, as gusts elsewhere have tapered off. A dry, reinforcing cold front will push east of the area overnight behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal, the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except for the Little TN Valley, where patchy fog may develop. Temps likewise end up a little below normal for Thursday. Another embedded shortwave will rotate through the trough late Thursday but without enough moisture to justify mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as deep, leading to lighter winds on Thursday. Cumulus will develop once again Thursday afternoon and early evening. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1205 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes to the going forecast to round out the month of May as we remain under dry Northerly flow aloft on Friday. In the wake of vort energy rippling toward the base of eastern seaboard trough axis, full sunshine is expected with Piedmont maximums around 80 along with surface dwpts well below climo. Progressive upper ridge axis builds into and translates across the region on Saturday and the llvl flow will come around to south. This will aid in boosting maximums a couple of deg F above Friday`s readings. The atmosphere will also become weakly unstable Saturday afternoon, and coincident with weak Ohio Valley s/wv energy skirting by, there could be a few showers developing in the NC mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the SE CONUS. In fact, there is little discernible change expected for the daily sensible weather through the early part of next week as triggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale features, along with the typical terrain aided forcing here in the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will be warming through the period, maximums rising to the early June climo on Monday, but into the upper 80s by Wednesday. Along with a daily increase in sfc dwpts will promote summertime heat and humidity by the middle of next week as well. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the 00Z TAF forecast period thanks to dry sfc high pressure building into the region behind a dry cold front tracking across the western Carolinas through tonight. SCT to BKN VFR cirrus has continue streaming across the SC Upstate terminals and KCLT as of 0120Z. These clouds should push east of the area over the next few hours. Winds are mainly NW/WNW this evening but should turn more N after midnight east of the mtns as the cold front pushes east. Wind gusts have tapered off east of the mtns but linger across the mtns. Winds at KAVL should remain WNW through the 00Z TAF period, with gust tapering off in the next hour or so. No fog is expected to develop overnight at any of the terminals thanks to drier air filtering in behind the cold front. Winds Wednesday morning and early afternoon will toggle more NE east of the mtns and may toggle back NW towards the end of the TAF period. However, confidence on this is very low so maintained NE winds through the rest of the TAF forecast period east of the mtns. Winds will be lighter compared to the last two days, with no wind gusts expected on Wednesday. Afternoon cumulus should return but will remain VFR. Outlook: VFR conditions will persist ,along with with dry weather, through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances may return this weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...AR