542
FXUS62 KGSP 270418
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1218 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain above normal through Monday.  There is a risk of
strong to severe thunderstorms from this evening until the cold
front passes Monday evening.  Cooler and drier conditions return
tuesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1214 AM EDT Monday: Still watching a rogue thunderstorm over
Fairfield County SC, which may clip the southeast part of the
Charlotte metro area, otherwise we have entered the lull before
the next line of severe storms arrives from the west. Won`t rule
out some fog in the interim. We look upstream across middle TN in
anticipation of the line reaching the NC mountains in the pre-dawn
hours. No word on watches this far east yet. Seems reasonable that
the line would still have enough oomph to produce some wind damage
along the TN border before it dies crossing the ridge.

Otherwise, a final round of storms will be possible during peak
heating on Monday, but will need a few factors to come together for
it to reach its full potential. This one will be dependent on how
much the environment recovers from the early morning convection
and if the atmosphere regenerates more instability. As of now,
CAMs do exactly that, with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to near
70 and instability quickly redeveloping by peak heating, ahead
of an incoming cold front. Deep layer shear will remain elevated
(35-45 kts) and curved hodographs would support rotating supercells
on Monday. The question will be if we can tap into any surface
instability to take advantage of the otherwise really good
kinematics in place. If instability becomes realized Monday
afternoon, all three hazards will be possible (large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes) with upscale growth by the time the
storms get into the eastern zones and east of the CFWA. The only
thing about this forecast is that it will remain uncertain until
we see what happens with the second round of convection that`s
expected overnight. Decided to lower temperatures slightly for
Monday as convective debris will be hard to shake off, especially
during the morning hours. As a result, afternoon highs on Monday
will be at or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...Upper heights remain nearly zonal Tue which
will help maintain dry conds and temps warming about 5-7 degrees abv
normal. Surface td/s will mix out deeper than Mon and expect lower
RH values making for a rather nice feeling day. Heights and
thicknesses begin to drop Tue night thru Wed and with a cP airmass
mixing in, don`t envision a good chance of precip associated with
incoming mlvl s/w Wed afternoon. So, kept the fcst dry and again
another nice feeling day with low RH and highs closer to normal. Dry
conds continue thru the overnight periods and really no good chance
of dense fog as sfc tdd/s generally average arnd 10 F across the
fcst area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...No sigfnt changes were made to the ext range
fcst. Still expect a mostly dry period as the mean h8-h5 flow aligns
w/ly to nw/ly and continues to reinforce a cP airmass building down
the east coast. The latest GFS swings a rather strong h5 s/w thru
the pattern Fri, but moisture looks too limited to introduce precip.
The going showery activity was maintained Sat as another ulvl wave
approaches from the west which will have a better llvl GOM
connection. Deep convection looks limited with this system, however,
as the wave runs into a strong ridging aloft possibly subduing tstm
development. Temps will remain arnd normal levels each and a limited
fog potential continues each night due mainly to sfc dryness.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
the area with temporary restrictions possible at all terminals
through the evening hours. A break in the storms is expected
overnight before a second line of convection moves through the area
during the early to mid morning hours. Associated visibility and
ceilings restrictions can be expected. Thereafter, gusty winds are
expected through the afternoon. A final round of storms will be
possible during the afternoon hours, but confidence is low as to
whether this activity will be able to develop.

Outlook: Drier weather is expected by midweek.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/PM/TW
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...TW