707
FXUS62 KGSP 290700
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday: Continuing a quiet stretch as an omega
blocking pattern churns across the CONUS. The the north, an
unsettled trough and upper low swing southward, but remain far
enough away to not impact the CWA. Given the proximity of the
pressure gradient to the mountains, another chance for some low-end
wind gusts across the higher elevations this afternoon and diminish
into the overnight hours. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep rain
chances nil through the period. By tonight, the upper ridge axis
over the central plains moves eastward and gradually contributes to
weak height rises over the area. A stout area of high pressure will
also remain over the area. Drier air from the NW flow will continue
to move in, drying out the region and keeping dewpoints down. Temps
approach the mid 80s east of the mountains today with cooler
overnight lows around climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday: The remainder of the work week
continues to look relatively benign across our region as we should
remain under a NW to N flow aloft between the upper trof that
digs down from the lower Great Lakes to the area offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic region and the upper ridge that migrates slowly east
from the MS Valley region to the Appalachians. For the most part,
this pattern supports high pressure building down from the upper
Great Lakes, finally reaching the western Carolinas by Saturday
morning. There is one interesting development in the new GFS...and
that is the vigorous short wave dropping down to dig the eastern
upper trof down across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday
evening. The wave brings a good shot of mid-level DPVA which
could support some shower development over the NC Piedmont, but
for now the moisture looks to be lacking, and the model guidance
fails to respond much. A few of the CAMs show isolated showers
dropping down in the NW flow late Thursday, so expect a trend
toward including some small precip prob over the western Piedmont
in future cycles. The pattern supports keeping temps below normal,
maybe a category on the highs, and about five degrees on the lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday: Looks like we should be able to
squeeze one more decent day out of this stretch on Saturday as
the deamplifying upper ridge axis moves overhead. Temps should
remain on the cool side of normal. Things start returning to
early summer from that point onward. The GFS has trended toward
a convoluted and baggy upper pattern across the region starting
on Sunday, with what looks like remnant MCVs and orphaned short
waves roaming around from the Plains to the Carolinas. The other
models at least show a more coherent pattern that would be more
zonal with embedded upper waves. Either way, expect the diurnal
cycle to be the primary organization to scattered showers and
storms each day, and that`s what we will go with until the signal
improves and we get a better sense of what days might have some
enhancement from the passage of an upper wave. In this pattern,
we should expect a gradual warmup back above normal, along with
an increase in humidity, through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through the end of the forecast period. A stream of upper
stratocu across the southern part of the area will move out
overnight, leaving SKC at most sites. A few upper cirrus could move
in during the daylight hours but CIGS will remain VFR. Winds have
gone light to calm across all terminals and won`t pick back up until
the morning hours. A few low-end gusts are likely at most sites, but
will diminish by the evening hours. Winds will prevail N/NW for the
entire TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather
conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP