681
FXUS62 KGSP 292203
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
603 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 PM EDT Wednesday: No major changes were needed this update
as the forecast remains on track. Still seeing dry conditions across
the CWA with few to scattered diurnal cumulus. Upper cirrus is
creeping in from the west and southwest and should gradually thicken
through the next several hours.

Otherwise, omega block is in full force across the eastern CONUS.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the upper OH Valley and
Northeast, with nearly cutoff embedded shortwave spinning near
Pittsburgh. Via this pattern, some degree of DPVA will occur over
our area this evening although the shortwave will pass by to our
north. Similar to yesterday, a relatively shallow convective layer
will be present beneath this feature but still capped by subsidence
inversion. Some congested or towering cumulus thus may be seen
across the CWA thru evening, perhaps resulting in brief, isolated
sprinkles, but chance of measurable rainfall still looks to be near
zero. Deep mixing will result in low-end wind gusts through this
evening, especially across the mtns.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will push across the area overnight
behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in
dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal,
the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except for
the Little TN Valley, where patchy fog may develop. Temps likewise
end up a little below normal for Thursday. Another embedded
shortwave will rotate through the trough late Thursday but without
enough moisture to justify mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as
deep, leading to lighter winds on Thursday. Cumulus will develop
once again Thursday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes to the going forecast to
round out the month of May as we remain under dry Northerly flow
aloft on Friday.  In the wake of vort energy rippling toward the
base of eastern seaboard trough axis, full sunshine is expected with
Piedmont maximums around 80 along with surface dwpts well below
climo.  Progressive upper ridge axis builds into and translates
across the region on Saturday and the llvl flow will come around to
south. This will aid in boosting maximums a couple of deg F above
Friday`s readings.  The atmosphere will also become weakly unstable
Saturday afternoon, and coincident with weak Ohio Valley s/wv energy
skirting by, there could be a few showers developing in the NC
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of
the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the
SE CONUS. In fact, there is little discernible change expected
for the daily sensible weather through the early part of next
week as triggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances
will be driven by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale
features, along with the typical terrain aided forcing here in
the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will be warming through
the period, maximums rising to the early June climo on Monday,
but into the upper 80s by Wednesday. Along with a daily increase
in sfc dwpts will promote summertime heat and humidity by the
middle of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the 18Z TAF forecast period. A
few to scattered VFR cumulus are in place this afternoon. Low-end
gusts of 15-20 kt will continue through early this evening; winds
should prevail from the NW quadrant although some variability will
occur at the SC sites. Reinforcing dry cold front may keep some cu
into the evening, but in general front should promote further drying
so no fog expected at daybreak Thursday at any of the TAF sites.
Lighter, less gusty winds and fewer cumulus expected on Thursday.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather
conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...Wimberley