252
FXUS62 KGSP 200607
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The limited coverage of any showers and storms on Friday afternoon
will be confined to the mountains.  Meanwhile, high pressure begins
to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a
dry weekend. Temperatures will be above normal through the weekend
then closer to normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 am: The last lingering spots of diurnal convection are
dissipating across the southern NC foothills early this morning. Low
stratus along with areas of fog is already widespread in the
mountain valleys, with some dense fog occurring in the Little
Tennessee basin. Will probably see some dense fog develop elsewhere
throughout the morning, but should remain too limited in coverage to
warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. Min temps are expected to be a
category or so above normal.

Drier conditions are expected later today with less cloud cover as
deep subsidence increases from the west and high pressure dominates
at the sfc. There may be some limited convective activity across the
mtns due to ridge top convergence, but coverage of precip will be
low-end due to the aforementioned subs and midlevel warming. Highs
will likely reach a couple cats above normal across the forecast
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge will be dominating the
Southern Plains as we move into the short term, with trough in place
over the East Coast. With heights rising through the period,
increasing subsidence will generally keep pops out of the forecast,
but a weak shortwave moving down the northerly flow aloft may bring
just a bit of moisture to the area briefly Saturday night, so cannot
rule out some showery activity in the NW NC Piedmont. Bigger story
will be the temperatures increasing through the period, with
temperatures trending upwards both Saturday and Sunday,
uncomfortably unseasonably warm with highs approaching mid 90s in
the Upper Savannah by Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge axis
pushes closer to us and the upper trough begins to lift out.
Elevated dewpoints underneath the increased ridging aloft will keep
overnight lows a couple of degrees above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper ridge will continue to push
east as we move into the extended, eventually flattening and
shifting slightly south as a mid-level low works its way out of the
Rockies and across the Northern Plains. A stronger system passing
across southern Canada will drag a cold front across the Great Lakes
on Sunday, approaching the OH Valley late in the weekend and
eventually toward the Southern Appalachians as we begin the new work
week, bringing a return of pops to the mountains. Timing this far
out is uncertain, and the first round of precip may dry up before
the secondary round associate with the Northern Plains wave moves in
Tue-Wed. High temperatures will be knocked back down closer to
seasonal normals with the increasing clouds and precipitation,
though increasing moisture will keep overnight lows above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Fog and/or low stratus is already becoming
widespread in the mountain valleys early this morning, and LIFR is
expected to continue until after sunrise at KAVL, with brief periods
of VLIFR also possible. Periodic IFR, w/ possible LIFR/brief VLIFR
is also expected to continue at KHKY until 13Z or so. Tempo IFR cigs
are forecast at KCLT toward sunrise, but only brief periods of MVFR
are expected at the other sites. All restrictions will lift by 15Z.
Winds will be very light through the period...possibly favoring a NE
direction later this morning, then E/SE during the afternoon. A few
showers, possibly a TSRA or two are expected to develop again this
afternoon/evening, but chances for a direct hit at any TAF sites is
at most 20%, so no mention is warranted at this time.

Outlook: No appreciable return of moisture or precip chances
expected until early to middle of next week. Daybreak restrictions
could recur each morning especially in mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JDL