Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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378 FXUS62 KGSP 152209 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 609 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 605 PM: Isolated showers/storms still slowly evolving over the SW NC mountains/foothills and even one stray cell in Greenville County. Some of this activity should dissipate near sunset, although new development is still possible thru the evening. CAMs along with 18z synoptic models still produce some response to a northward moving sfc boundary, possibly the sea breeze front, late evening through very early morning. NAMNest still proving overdone so not buying its depiction, but with lapse rates remaining favorable aloft and no notable suppressing feature, it still looks like some weak convection still could bubble along the boundary thru much of the night, particularly with flow turning SE into the Escarpment. Revised extent of mostly isolated shower/tstm mention. Looks to become more convectively active across the mtns Sunday as se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps produce pulse type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as the environ remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS strength as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will remain abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs Sun return to near normal levels. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3 degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week. This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A northward moving bndry will likely increase cloud cover overnight and produce MVFR CIGS at KAVL and possibly across the Upstate terminals. These restrictions will be relatively short lived and by 12z all sites shud be VFR. KHKY could also see MVFR CIGs late period as the bndry remains across that area. Precip chances will be sct/isol and confidence is low on any terminal receiving rain or thunder. High pressure centers off the Atl coast overnight, which will allow for e/ly to se/ly winds all sites thru the daytime period. Outlook: More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SCW NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...SBK