336
FXUS61 KGYX 232210
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
610 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite being hundreds of miles away, an ocean storm continues
to bring large waves to the nearshore waters and keep water
levels high. That will continue into Tuesday but we will start
to see both wave heights and water levels diminish. A narrow
area of high pressure will wedge into the region during the
middle of the week, with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures. Then later in the week we will see a more
widespread chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
610 PM Update... Allowed the coastal flood statement for the
southern coast to expire on time. Otherwise, just loaded in the
latest sfc observations at this time.

Previously...
Cool pool aloft has led to the development of plenty of
flattening cu out there this afternoon. A few sprinkles remain
possible thru the early evening...but otherwise dry.

Overnight high clouds will try and clear to the east...but also
more are streaming in from the southwest. First I do not expect
temps overnight to be as cold as last night. Second that makes
fog a little uncertain overnight. I think the major river
valleys will see some fog so I have kept the patchy wording
there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Wind direction looks to become a little more south of east Tue.
With largely the same air mass aloft I anticipate cu to break
out as the day heats up. There have been some ocean effect type
showers and sprinkles today across MA...so I could see some of
those sneaking into southern NH during the afternoon Tue. I have
added sprinkles for the time being. A few more clouds around Tue
night should prevent temps from radiating too much...and may
also disrupt fog development...so I have none in the forecast
currently.

The nearshore waves will continue to slowly diminish Tue as
well. Current forecasts are right on the threshold of high
surf...and the rip risk is not forecast to hit high levels. So
it is possible we could go headline free on the coast Tue.
However I could see need for something like a rip statement
being necessary given the prolonged nature of this east
northeast flow event.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models still in fairly good agreement that 500 MB trough dice
equatorward through ON Wed and Wed night, then closes off over S
QC on Thursday and crosses N ME Thursday night, which will
bring showers to the region, most prevalent Wed night into Thu.
By Friday it should be clearing, with a day of cooler air, but
still around normal, before a ridge develops Sunday and hold
through early next week. This ridge will also provide some above
normal temps to the region.

On Wed, will see increasing clouds, although in the W zones it
may end being mostly cloudy all day, while the further E you go
the better chance you have for more sun in the morning. Cant
rule out a few afternoon showers in the mtns as the trough
deepens to the E, and some WAA starts to move in, but the bulk
of the rain holds until Wed evening. Highs will generally range
from the low 60s in the N to the mid to upper 60s in the S.

Wed night into Thu will be the best chance for rain in the CWA
as a wave moves in to the base of that trough just to our N and
closed it off. The dynamics will be combined with WAA aloft on
Wed night, and then a cold front will follow on Thursday. So
showers move across Wed night with maybe a break short break
early Thu, followed by another round of showers with cold front
late morning into the afternoon. Total QPF Wed night through Thu
ranges from about a third of an inch in srn NH to near a half
inch in central ME and the mid coast, to maybe three quarters of
inch in parts of the mtns. Lows Wed night should wet bulb into
the low to mid 50s, with highs on Thursday generally in the low
to mid 60s, but could see a run at 70 in S NH where, some
clearing is possible mid to late afternoon. Some showers linger
in the E zones Thu evening, but should see clearing outside the
mtns after midnight with lows 50-55.

There could be some light showers or sprinkles in the mtns
Friday morning as wave tracks around the W side of the 500 MB
and maybe partly sunny skies, but should see clearing by Friday
afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. The weekend
into Monday should be mainly sunny and dry with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70 and lows from about 45-55.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...CIGs have largely lifted above MVFR thresholds this
afternoon. Overnight loss of diurnal heating should allow lower
clouds to dissipate...but high clouds will linger. This leads to
some uncertainty with radiation fog development...but I am
leaning towards fog in the favored valleys. I have IFR or lower
conditions at the typical hot spots of LEB and HIE...but it is
possible that fog may sneak into CON. VFR conditions return
Tue...but I do anticipate some clouds to develop around 4000 ft.

Long Term...VFR expected Wed, although flight restrictions are
likely by late Wed night through much of Thursday, in rain and
low cigs. The restrictions will likely linger in the mtns and at
KAUG and KRKD Thu night, but should see a return to VFR
everywhere Friday morning, with VFR through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue thanks to seas above 5 ft.
Northeast winds continue thru Tue...so the sea state is expected
to remain fairly consistent thru that time.

Long Term...5-6 ft seas will continue through Thu, but should
them subside Thu night, with no SCA criteria expected through
the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With storm surge running just under 1 ft across most of the
coastal waters...water levels at high tide this afternoon should
remain below flood stage. However some splash-over and beach
erosion is likely and a coastal flood statement remains in
effect. Similar conditions are possible Tue around high
tide...so another statement may need to be issued.

Beach surveys and Emergency Managers continue to indicate
compromised dune systems along the coastline from our storms
this past winter...which will limit natural protection.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-024.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cempa