855
FXUS61 KGYX 021353
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
953 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region today...moving
southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and
dry conditions as a result. A shower is possible as a weak
frontal boundary crosses the region late Wednesday night.
Temperatures and humidity begin to build on Independence Day
with this trend continuing through the end of the week. The next
chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
951 AM Update...Very little change to the going forecast today.
Sunny skies and warm temperatures continue to be expected. After
afternoon seabreeze is likely.

Update...
Mainly sunny skies continue to be reported this morning across
the forecast area per latest surface observations and satellite
imagery. Some fog will remain in a few of the interior valleys
until 12Z with high, thin Cirrus clouds in other locations.
There will be less wind today compared to yesterday with sea
breezes developing along and near the coastline by late this
morning.

Prev Disc...
A ridge of high pressure will build over the forecast area
today. There will be much less wind than yesterday as the
surface gradient collapses. Neutral temperature advection aloft
will allow for H8 temperatures to be around +11C today. Under
mostly sunny conditions and good mixing this afternoon, expect a
warmer day with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s away
from the shoreline. Along the immediate coast, temperatures
will be cooler with a sea breeze developing by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region tonight. Clear skies
and light winds will allow for a chilly night with some upper
40s in the mountains for lows and mainly 50s elsewhere. Patchy
fog will develop as well.

The ridge will slide off the coast on Wednesday allowing a
trough to approach from the west. Warm air advection will allow
for some cloudiness to increase during the afternoon. The
atmosphere will be initially dry so precipitation should hold
off during the daytime hours.

Temperatures will once again reach the 80s across the interior.
Right along the coastline, southerly winds will be on the
increase and keep things cooler as winds remain off the Gulf of
Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential:
*  Heat indices have some potential for nearing advisory thresholds
   by this weekend.
*  Greatest chance for thunderstorms also comes this
   weekend...with confidence currently low on any severe
   potential.

The details...The cool and dry weather felt in the early part
of the work week will change to more warm and humid conditions
for the later part of the work week into the weekend. By
Wednesday night, the upper level ridge that has been with us
will get pushed out as an upper level trough dives southward
entering the area by Thursday. Some showers are likely
Wednesday night into Thursday but widespread rain is not
expected with thunderstorm activity unlikely given the timing of
the front. The warm and humid July airmass continues Friday
into the weekend with the next best chance for precip being
Saturday into Sunday as low pressure to our west pushes a
warm/occluded front through the area with the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms. Will have to watch heat indices
Thursday and beyond as well as temperature aloft would support
near advisory level values in some spots if enough sun can be
realized during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected today through Wednesday.
There will be some patchy fog mainly across the interior valleys
tonight with localized IFR conditions.

Long Term...Generally good aviation conditions through the long
term forecast period. A few showers are possible late Wednesday
night / early Thursday morning with isolated restrictions.
Building humidity may result in morning haze/fog at BML/HIE by
Friday/Saturday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds on all waters
through Wednesday.

Long Term...High pressure will be located over the waters late
Wednesday before a weak cold front stalls over the waters
Wednesday night and Thursday. This front will lift back north of
the waters on Saturday. The result will be an extended period
of relatively light winds/low wave heights. From Thursday
onward...increasing moisture may bring some fog over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cannon/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Arnott