336
FXUS61 KGYX 011823
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
223 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region on Tuesday...moving
southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and dry
conditions as a result.  A shower is possible as a weak frontal
boundary crosses the region late Wednesday night. Temperatures and
humidity begin to build on Independence Day with this trend
continuing through the end of the week.  The next chance for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A cooler air mass will move in from the west tonight as high
pressure builds on from the Great Lakes region. Any diurnal
boundary layer CU and isolated showers/tstm will dissipate
around sunset with the loss of heating. Winds will diminish
overnight which will allow for radiational cooling at many
locations. Went with a blend of the MET and MAV guidance for
mins tonight, yielding coldest values in the L-M 40s in the
lower elevations of Coos County NH. Some valley fog is possible

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure dominates Tuesday highs mainly in the 80s. A
seabreeze is expected to develop in the early afternoon. A fair
and cool night appears to be in store for Tuesday night with
high pressure nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High Impact Weather Potential:
*  Heat indices have some potential for nearing advisory thresholds
   by this weekend.
*  Greatest chance for thunderstorms also comes this
   weekend...with confidence currently low on any severe
   potential.

The details...The cool and dry weather felt in the early part
of the work week will change to more warm and humid conditions
for the later part of the work week into the weekend. By late
Wednesday the upper level ridge that has been with us will get
pushed out as an upper level trough dives southward entering the
area by Thursday. As this happens surface high pressure will
slide offshore and a warm front will pull in the warmer and more
humid air into the area late Wednesday. Some showers are likely
late Wednesday into Thursday but widespread rain is not
expected with thunderstorm activity unlikely given the timing of
the front. The warm and humid July airmass continues Friday
into the weekend with the next best chance for precip being
Saturday into Sunday as low pressure to our west pushes a
warm/occluded front through the area with the potential for
some showers and thunderstorms. Will have to watch heat indices
Thursday and beyond as well as temperature aloft would support
near advisory level values in some spots if enough sun can be
realized during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight through Tuesday night with patchy
valley fog late at night. Seabreeze develops Wednesday afternoon
at the coast.

Long Term...Generally good aviation conditions through the long
term forecast period. A few showers are possible late Wednesday
night / early Thursday morning with isolated restrictions.
Building humidity may result in morning haze/fog at BML/HIE by
Friday/Saturday mornings.


&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds on all waters
through Wednesday.

Long Term...High pressure will be located over the waters on
Wednesday before a weak cold front stalls over the waters
Wednesday night and Thursday. This front will lift back north of
the waters on Saturday. The result will be an extended period
of relatively light winds/low wave heights. From Thursday
onward...increasing moisture may bring some fog over the waters.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Doughty/Arnott