862
FXUS61 KGYX 262303
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
703 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much needed rainfall continues this evening, tapering off
tonight. Dry weather returns tomorrow into the weekend as high
pressure moves overhead. The next chance for rainfall comes
toward mid week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...Back edge of rain shield continues to move
eastward through the forecast area at this time and should exit
the coast before midnight. Otherwise, thereafter we expected
clouds to continue to linger along with the development of fog.

Previously...

Widespread rainfall is continuing at this hour with many
interior locations reporting 24 hr rain totals in the 1-1.5"
range with an isolated gauge in Warren, NH showing 2". Southern
New Hampshire and far Southern Maine have been largely left out
to this point, but hi-res guidance continues to show their time
to see some heavier showers comes with a band later this
evening when the system is making its push out over the waters.
This band looks less convective then yesterday as instability
is unsurprisingly lacking, but an isolated rumble of thunder is
not out of the questions as mechanical mixing and a potent
upper level jet strengthen the band of showers and also bring
brief gusty winds. Again, the gusty winds look most likely at
the immediate coast and over the water. Showers taper off
overnight leaving drizzle and then areas of fog in their wake.
Nighttime lows will be limited to the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low exits the region tomorrow and high pressure
begins to nose in from the north. The trend tomorrow will be
clearing skies and temperatures warming into the 70s in the
foothills and south of the mountains, and mid to upper 60s to
the north.

Nighttime lows get a little cooler Friday night under partly
cloudy skies with mid- to upper 40s to the north and low 50s
south. Winds will be calm so some patchy fog may develop in the
usual valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As a trough of low pressure remains to our east over the
upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will build overhead.
This will leave the region with a mix of sun and clouds with
temperatures above normal for late September, mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south.

High pressure in Eastern Canada will remain in control of New
England as we head into next week. The remnants of Helene will
remain to our south leaving us with dry conditions. As a trough
of low pressure reaches the tropical moisture over the Mid
Atlantic region, there have been some hints within the ensemble
and operational solutions suggesting some type of cyclogenesis
or low formation off the southern New England coastline by
midweek. Will continue to monitor as we remain in a complex
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...A mixed bag of restrictions will continue through
tonight as rain continues to move through the region and than
fog and drizzle develop in its wake. Many if not all of the TAF
sites will likely be IFR/LIFR for a period overnight.
Convection seems less likely this evening for CON, MHT, PSM, and
PWM, but can`t be ruled out. Winds may gust 15-20kts at the
sites as the front pushes out of the area.


Long Term...VFR should be the prevailing condition right
through the weekend. Winds will be light with gusts generally
10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Max wave heights remain 5-6ft through Friday
morning, decreasing through the day with offshore winds. A
period of westerly wind gusts 25-30kts is possible early tonight
as the front moves out over the waters.

Long Term...Below SCA criteria through the weekend. A general
northeasterly flow will prevail through the period, however will
remain relatively light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-024.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Cannon
AVIATION...
MARINE...