Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
129 FXHW60 PHFO 171313 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 313 AM HST Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will remain locked in place north of the Hawaii region through the rest of this week. A weak upper low drifting over the state into Tuesday will help produce periods of showers mainly over the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. The ridge to the north will strengthen from Wednesday onward, producing breezy to locally windy trade winds into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Radar imagery this morning shows scattered to numerous showers developing over and upstream of windward mountain ranges. Satellite imagery shows a band of low level clouds upstream of each island, moving into the windward slopes. This cloud band and a weak upper level low shown on the water vapor satellite channel will likely spread periods of showers along the windward and mountain slopes through the early morning hours. The weak upper level low continues to lift trade wind inversion heights this morning to around 7,000 feet at both Lihue and Hilo upper air observation sites. Temperature inversion heights at this level will support continued periods of trade wind showers favoring the windward and mountain areas through early Tuesday morning. This shower activity will decrease slightly during the mid morning to afternoon hours. A subtropical high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will produce moderate to breezy trade winds lasting through Tuesday. A slight increase in the easterly trade winds into the breezy to locally windy range will start on Wednesday and continue into next weekend as the ridge north of the islands strengthens. A cloud band from the likely remnants of an old East Pacific front may roll through the islands by Saturday, enhancing shower activity a bit for next weekend. Otherwise little changes are forecast in the day to day island weather pattern with just more typical trade wind weather continues through the end of this week. && .AVIATION... Breezy easterly trades will continue, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods of MVFR conditions will continue over these windward sections through the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect for most windward areas. Conditions should improve by mid morning. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain north-northeast of the area, then gradually strengthen during the second half of the week. As a result, the trades will become fresh to locally strong, with near-gale winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of the Big Island beginning Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA), currently in effect for the normally windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island, will likely continue through the week, with an expansion to include the waters around Kauai and Oahu on Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as the south swell fades today. For the rest of the week, expect only background small, medium to long period, south to southeast swell energy moving through the local waters. North shore surf is expected to be small through the week, coming from small, mainly medium-period, northwest swells. Surf along east shores will become increasingly rough and choppy from Wednesday onward as the trade winds strengthen across the state. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Gibbs MARINE...TS