Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
959 FXHW60 PHFO 172004 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1004 AM HST Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the end of the week. A drier trade wind pattern will filter today into weekend, with light to moderate showers focused over windward slopes. && .DISCUSSION... The blob of moisture that moved through the state yesterday is now well west of the state and we should return to our typical trade wind weather for rest of the week. A 1031 mb High sitting far north of the state should weaken some over the next several days and will result in the trade winds weakening a touch. Overall, we should see moderate to locally breezy trade winds hold through the weekend with a decrease possible early next week. As far as rainfall, we should see our typical dry season weather with mostly dry conditions across leeward areas rest of the week and some scattered showers over windward areas primarily during the early mornings and overnights. By early next week, global models are showing an upper level low dropping southward and within the vicinity of the state around Monday. At this time, it is too early to tell whether or not this will bring any unsettled weather to the state. Stay tuned for more details. && .AVIATION... A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during the next few days. Pockets of moisture moving along the trade wind flow will produce areas of MVFR conditions along windward slopes, though AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is not anticipated today. While VFR will dominate over most leeward areas, cloud cover developed early on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, and isolated MVFR conditions will persist there through the afternoon. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of days. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through Wednesday. The trades will ease ever so slightly Thursday and Friday as the high weakens, then rebound back to locally strong by this weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around the Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Thursday. East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Wednesday, then slowly lower Thursday through early next week. A mix of southeast, south and southwest swells will keep some small surf rolling into south facing shores through the weekend. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible early next week as a slightly larger southwest swell moves into the islands. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend followed by a bump early next week as a small medium-to-long period NW swell arrives. The combination of high astronomical tides and water levels running around 0.6 to 0.8 feet higher than predicted will produce localized coastal inundation around the time of high tide this afternoon. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect highlighting potential impacts. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Wroe MARINE...JVC