Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
598 FXHW60 PHFO 190629 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 829 PM HST Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A fairly dry moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern will continue through Friday afternoon. An weak disturbance moving through the Hawaii region by this weekend will increase shower trends for all islands, especially over windward and mountain areas. Drier trends return from next week Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION... A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to locally breezy trade winds through the upcoming weekend. Fairly strong subsidence, downward vertical motions, across the region will limit rainfall coverage through Friday afternoon. A weak low level trough riding in on the easterly trade winds will link up with an upper level low drifting into the islands from the north. These two systems will weaken the stability across the state and increase shower trends statewide from Friday night through Sunday. Drier conditions will return from next week Monday onward as these low pressure systems diminish and move westward away from the state. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds continue with brief overnight to early morning showers possible over windward and mountain areas. && .AVIATION... Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the 24 h TAF period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible as showers pass through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect at least for the next several days. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally strong trades should remain in place through the weekend due to high pressure northeast of the islands. A slight weakening of the high could decrease wind speeds early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Saturday. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend until Tuesday and Wednesday of next week when a 4 to 5 foot medium to long-period northwest swell could arrive. East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Thursday morning, then slowly lower Thursday evening through early next week. A mix of southeast, south and southwest swells will keep small surf rolling into south facing shores through Monday. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as a slightly larger long-period southwest swell moves through. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Gibbs MARINE...Jelsema/Walsh