776
FXHW60 PHFO 070139
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
339 PM HST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai into Friday,
keeping the winds light and allowing for land and sea breezes to
form across much of the state. The ridge will lift northward this
weekend allowing trade winds to gradually return and strengthen.
Moderate to locally breezy trade wind conditions are expected by
Sunday and persist through the middle of next week. Very stable
conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend,
with a slight increase in windward showers expected Monday and
Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by the
middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...


A east to west oriented ridge of high pressure remains around 150
miles north of Kauai, maintaining light winds across the state.
Visible satellite imagery shows some upslope cloud development
especially for the Big Island and select windward and leeward
areas of the smaller islands due to sea breeze developing. There
is also a band of high clouds draped across Kauai and moving
south that could make for a nice sunset as it nears Maui. Radar
imagery and rain gage observations continue to show very dry
conditions across the state. Expect clouds to clear overnight as
land breezes develop. Chances of showers will remain very limited
as the inversion heights remain between 3.5 and 4 kft, keeping any
cloud development very shallow.

A dry land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as low
inversion heights persist and the ridge of high pressure remains
north of the state, keeping the winds light. The ridge will begin
to lift northward over the weekend allowing the trades to
gradually return. Moderate to locally breezy conditions are
expected by Sunday and persist into the middle of next week.
Clouds and showers will begin to focus along windward and mauka
areas, however shower activity will remain limited across the
entire state over the weekend due to very stable conditions from
low inversion levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift
early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade
wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than
normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern
should return by the middle of next week with rising inversion
heights.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak pressure gradient across the region will keep light winds
across the islands resulting in daytime sea breezes and nighttime
land breezes. Expect shower activity to remain limited due to a
relatively dry air mass. Conditions will remain mainly VFR, with
brief MVFR possible through this evening.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscurations for
windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Expect conditions to
improve after sunset as land breezes develop.


&&

.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through Friday. The ridge will lift northward over the weekend,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the
potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around
Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.

A south-southwest swell will peak Friday. A moderate long period
south-southwest swell will build into this weekend, peaking Sunday
night into Monday near High Surf Advisory levels. A moderate long
period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels late next
week. The current small northwest swell continues to decline.
However, a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will keep surf
elevated into Friday. Wind waves for east facing shores have
diminished significantly and will remain small into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Powell