Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
776 FXHW60 PHFO 070139 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 339 PM HST Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai into Friday, keeping the winds light and allowing for land and sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift northward this weekend allowing trade winds to gradually return and strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trade wind conditions are expected by Sunday and persist through the middle of next week. Very stable conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... A east to west oriented ridge of high pressure remains around 150 miles north of Kauai, maintaining light winds across the state. Visible satellite imagery shows some upslope cloud development especially for the Big Island and select windward and leeward areas of the smaller islands due to sea breeze developing. There is also a band of high clouds draped across Kauai and moving south that could make for a nice sunset as it nears Maui. Radar imagery and rain gage observations continue to show very dry conditions across the state. Expect clouds to clear overnight as land breezes develop. Chances of showers will remain very limited as the inversion heights remain between 3.5 and 4 kft, keeping any cloud development very shallow. A dry land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as low inversion heights persist and the ridge of high pressure remains north of the state, keeping the winds light. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend allowing the trades to gradually return. Moderate to locally breezy conditions are expected by Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. Clouds and showers will begin to focus along windward and mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited across the entire state over the weekend due to very stable conditions from low inversion levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next week with rising inversion heights. && .AVIATION... A weak pressure gradient across the region will keep light winds across the islands resulting in daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Expect shower activity to remain limited due to a relatively dry air mass. Conditions will remain mainly VFR, with brief MVFR possible through this evening. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscurations for windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Expect conditions to improve after sunset as land breezes develop. && .MARINE... The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through Friday. The ridge will lift northward over the weekend, allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday. A south-southwest swell will peak Friday. A moderate long period south-southwest swell will build into this weekend, peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory levels. A moderate long period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels late next week. The current small northwest swell continues to decline. However, a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will keep surf elevated into Friday. Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished significantly and will remain small into the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Almanza AVIATION...Ahue MARINE...Powell