Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
269 FXHW60 PHFO 100138 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 338 PM HST Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward shores and slopes. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure will maintain north to northeast of the state through the week keeping breezy trade winds in the forecast. Ridging aloft will produce dry and stable conditions to go along with the breezes. 00Z soundings showed strong inversions near 5000 feet, which will limit shower development. Visible satellite shows scattered windward clouds, and broken cloud cover over the Kona coast of the Big Island. Clouds on the Big Island should dissipate after sunset as land breezes set in. Otherwise, expect a similar weather pattern continuing through the next several days with a few windward clouds and leeward sun. The high is expected to slowly track eastward through the week with a low pressure system shifting the high a little bit southward by next weekend. Weather pattern across Hawaii will change very little with minor fluctuations in wind speeds, and mostly dry and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and showers will occur at times, but no significant rain amounts are expected through the week. && .AVIATION... Breezy trades will increase slightly through Monday. With high pressure and dry air in place over the region, shower activity will be limited. A strong inversion will keep any ceilings fairly low, allowing for periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs are currently in effect, nor expected through tonight, unless widespread low ceilings develop. && .MARINE... Fresh to locally strong trades will continue through much of the week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades. Surf along south-facing shores will remain up through the week due to an active pattern within our swell window near New Zealand. Overlapping, long-period, south to south-southwest swells are therefore expected. Guidance shows this swell peaking late tonight through Monday. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south- southwest swell and a small, medium- period southeast swell. A fresh long- period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday. Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later this week through next weekend. Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as the trades become established locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for south facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, Kahoolawe and Big Island. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...JVC