Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
131 FXHW60 PHFO 091928 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 928 AM HST Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward shores and slopes. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure will maintain north to northeast of the state through the week keeping breezy trade winds in the forecast. Ridging aloft will produce dry and stable conditions to go along with the breezes. 12Z soundings showed strong inversions near 4000 feet, which will limit shower development. Visible satellite this morning shows an area of stable stratocumulus clouds coming out of the east, which may produce some windward clouds along the lower windward slopes over the next couple days. Radar currently shows almost no shower activity within range. The high is expected to slowly track eastward through the week with a low pressure system shifting the high a little bit southward by next weekend. Weather pattern across Hawaii will change very little with minor fluctuations in wind speeds, and mostly dry and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and showers will occur at times, but no significant rain amounts are expected through the week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will increase into the fresh to strong range today and continue through much of the week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. This may lead to the Small Craft Advisory expanding to the Kaiwi Channel and Maui County Windward waters by Monday. Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades. Surf along south-facing shores will remain up through the week due to an active pattern within our swell window near New Zealand. Overlapping, long-period, south to south-southwest swells are expected, with the next one beginning to fill in early this morning (peak energy centered within the 18-22 second bands at the buoys). Guidance shows this swell peaking late tonight through Monday. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A fresh long-period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday. Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later this week through next weekend. Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as the trades become established locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. && .MARINE... Breezy trades will continue to gradually increase through the rest of today. With high pressure and dry air in place over the region, shower activity will be limited. A strong inversion will keep any ceilings fairly low, allowing for periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs are currently in effect, nor expected through this afternoon, unless widespread low ceilings develop. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for south facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, Kahoolawe and Big Island. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...JVC