Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
660 FXHW60 PHFO 252010 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1010 AM HST Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather will continue over the next several days with light passing showers over windward and mountain areas and mostly dry conditions over leeward areas. Trade winds will slightly decrease over the weekend to gentle to moderate speeds. An increase of showers is possible late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate and stable trade wind weather through the next several days. Over the weekend, the high will shift further east and weaken as a front passes far north of the state. This will result in the trade winds weakening some over the weekend. At this time, a gentle to moderate trade wind pattern is expected over the weekend with localized sea breezes developing over select leeward areas. As far as precipitation, generally mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend with a few light showers over windward and mountain areas. Leeward areas should remain mostly dry with the exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island, where afternoon showers are expected each afternoon. An increase of showers is possible late Sunday into early next week as we return to a more normal trade wind pattern with scattered showers over windward areas and isolated showers over leeward areas. && .AVIATION... Periodic high clouds grace area skies as locally breezy trades persist and upper-level ridging maintains high stability. Trades will provide limited clouds and showers, focusing what few showers there are over windward and mauka areas. VFR prevails areawide. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure over the North Pacific will hold through Friday then weaken over the weekend in response to a front passing far north of the state. Trade wind weather will continue but wind speeds will weaken slightly over the weekend. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will likely return next week, as high pressure rebuilds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds are expected to drop below SCA criteria shortly after sunset and not redevelop on Thursday. Multiple areas of thunderstorms several hundred miles to Hawaii`s south and southwest are expected to remain outside Hawaiian Offshore Waters. Bands of mid and high level clouds associated with this distant tropical convection have become ensnared in the upper level winds. Expect occasional bands of layered clouds to pass over Hawaii over the next several days. Latest offshore buoys 51001 and 51101 show a gradual decline of the moderate long period northwest swell (320 to 330 degrees). This swell should currently be at its peak and is expected to downtrend this afternoon through the rest of the work week. A new smaller north- northwest swell could provide a small, short lived boost this weekend. A long period southwest swell peaks today with a gradual decline tonight. An overlapping short period southwest swell is expected to fill in today from a fetch of strong southwest winds that occurred Monday around 10N170W. Lastly, a pair of small southwest swell are expected Thursday night or Friday and again on Sunday and early next week. East facing shores should remain small through the rest of the week and into the weekend due to the lack of strong trades locally or upstream of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Another day of dry and breezy conditions are expected today with humidities a touch higher than the past few days. Fire weather conditions will continue to be elevated due to the breezy trade winds and ongoing drought conditions for many leeward areas. But, critical fire weather (Red Flag) conditions are not expected through the weekend due to the trade winds likely remaining below the 20 mph Red Flag Warning criteria. Trade winds will be a bit breezy today then gradually weaken down to moderate speeds by the weekend. No significant rainfall is expected through the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Kino AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Bedal/Wroe