056
FXHW60 PHFO 301948
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
948 AM HST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail with afternoon sea
breezes along terrain sheltered western slopes of each island
today. Trade winds will strengthen into the moderate to breezy
range as sea breezes diminish from Monday onward. Clouds and
passing showers will favor the windward and mountain areas,
trending higher in the overnight to early morning hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible today near Kauai. More stable
conditions are forecast from Monday onward with brief passing
showers mainly forming over windward and mountain areas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A subtropical high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands
will keep trade winds in the forecast through this week. An upper
level low roughly 200 miles north of Kauai will continue to drift
west today, and then weaken as it moves northward on Monday away
from the region. A weak low level trough under this upper low will
keep trade winds in the gentle to moderate range for one more
day. Upper level forcing from this passing low will enhance shower
activity over the western islands, mainly affecting windward and
mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Sea
breezes will also develop today over terrain sheltered western
slopes of each island. Large scale trades and local scale sea
breeze winds will converge, producing afternoon clouds and showers
over these terrain sheltered leeward locations.

By Monday, the ridge will build into the islands as the upper low
weakens and drifts northward away from the region. Trade winds
will strengthen into the moderate to breezy range through much of
next week. Stronger subsidence under this ridge will stabilize
the atmosphere by lowering the trade wind thermal inversion
heights and reducing cloud heights. Expect mostly brief passing
showers from Monday onward as more stable conditions return to the
Hawaii Region.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades continue through the period.
SHRA and low cigs will focus over windward and mauka areas with
MVFR possible on an isolated basis.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh
trade winds today. Monday through midweek, trades are expected to
strengthen back to fresh and strong levels, and a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be required for the typically windy waters
around Maui and the Big Island.

No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming
week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast
swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.

Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along
north facing shores.

East shore surf will remain below normal on today, then trend up
closer to seasonal levels early to mid this week as the trades
strengthen over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong
northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small
northeast (050 to 060 degree) swell late this weekend into early
next week.

Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the
Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor
flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water
levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive
reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the
high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood
Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of
July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a
touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1
foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Bohlin/Ahue
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kino