082
FXHW60 PHFO 261953
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
953 AM HST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable trade wind pattern will persist through Thursday with
breezy to locally windy trades. Periodic light showers will focus
over windward and mauka areas during this time. An increase in
shower activity and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over
portions of the state from Friday into the weekend as an upper-
level disturbance approaches and moves over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to locally strong easterly trade winds continue to prevail
across the islands today, steered by high pressure that remains
centered approximately 850 miles north of Kauai. Clouds and a few
light showers embedded within the trades are favoring windward
and mauka areas, though rain gauges statewide show that
accumulations have been very light this morning. For the rest of
the day, expect this pattern to continue with breezy to locally
windy trades and light showers favoring windward and mountain
locations.

Winds will remain breezy to locally windy through Thursday as the
high pressure to the north remains in place. Impulses of moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to favor windward
and mauka areas, though rainfall accumulation will be limited.
Aside from some brief afternoon and evening showers over Kona
slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will remain mostly dry.

Guidance continues to show an upper-level disturbance moving
near the islands Friday and then over the western end of the state
this weekend. This disturbance will destabilize the atmosphere
and enhance our trade wind showers, particularly on Saturday
night. Isolated thunderstorms continue to be a possibility over
the slopes of the Big Island on Friday and Saturday afternoons and
over the western end of the state on Saturday and Sunday as
temperatures aloft cool. However, with precipitable water forecast
to be near seasonal normals, moisture availability will be a
limiting factor. Will continue to evaluate thunder chances over
the next several model runs, with further adjustments of timing
and areal coverage expected. Otherwise, enhanced trade wind
showers look to continue into Monday. Conditions return to a more
typical summertime trade wind pattern by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will persist across the island chain through
Thursday. Showers and low clouds riding in on the trades will
bring brief periods of MVFR conditions over windward and mauka
locations. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds
under the tradewind inversion.

No other AIRMETs are in effect at this time. However, AIRMET Sierra
for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed again tonight if shower
coverage increases.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the Central North
Pacific, but is expected to weaken slightly and shift eastward for
the weekend. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will
persist through Thursday then weaken slightly to the gentle to
fresh range beginning on Friday and hold through the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windier waters around
Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect. The SCA may be
dropped as early as Thursday Night, but conditions could linger
through Friday.

An upper level low will bring the potential for unsettled weather
to the Islands on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible, especially over the western half of the state, and
should be assumed to trigger locally higher winds and seas.

For the coming week, high pressure to the Northeast of the state
is expected to hold while a new stronger high builds to the
northwest. SCA conditions are likely to return to the Pailolo and
Alenuihaha Channels as early as Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, surf along east-facing shores will gradually ease
as the weekend approaches as the winds locally and upstream both
trend downwards.

Along south facing shores, a small, medium- to long- period south
swell will fill in tonight, before peaking Thursday night then
gradually ease into the weekend. Near to below average surf along
south facing shores is expected into the coming week as well.

A small, medium period, northwest swell is expected to fill in
tonight and peaking Thursday night, thus providing a small
bump along north facing shores that will persist through Friday
then virtually disappear over the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Birchard/Bedal