054
FXUS64 KHGX 221950
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Hmm...the calendar says that it`s the first day of Fall, but when
I walk outside it still feels all summer-like. Why is it hot and
humid in Fall and where`s my FROPA?! The temperatures will
eventually simmer down a bit later this week due to a FROPA, but
that`s in the long term period. Here in the short term, we`re
still on the tail-end of influence from an upper level ridge.
That`s combined with onshore flow pulling in low-level moisture
and increased humidity from over the Gulf creating the hot and
humid conditions we`re all used to (and sick of at this point).
The main ridge axis will continue sliding off to the east as an
upper level trough drifts eastward from the Four Corners region
over to the Central Plains. This upper level trough has already
spurred the development of surface low pressure in W/NW Texas,
and as this low transitions northeastward it will drag a cold
front towards SE Texas. Now it won`t push through in the short
term forecast window though...so expect high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s both today and Monday.

As the front gets closer on Monday, it will lead to a surge in PW
values (1.6-2.0") as moisture converges along the frontal
boundary. As a result, we could see isolated to scattered showers
as early as Monday morning along the coast. Rain chances extend
further inland in the afternoon, but the higher end of the chances
generally remain near and south of I-10. Another impact from the
increase in low level moisture is patchy fog during the
overnight/early morning hours mainly for areas west of the I-45
corridor. Nighttime temperatures will remain above normal both
tonight and Monday night with lows in the low to mid 70s inland
and upper 70s closer to the coast. For portions of the Brazos
Valley, this does depend a bit on where the frontal boundary
stalls out at as some deterministic guidance has the front ever so
partially into SE Texas on late Monday night.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Will see some active weather regionally and some changes locally
during the long term period. Locally, onshore flow along with heat
and humidity will continue through Monday...but an approaching
cold front along with a developing low pressure system over the NW
Carribean, SW Gulf (more on this later) will lead to winds
backing from SE to NE...to finally north as the cold front pushes
through late Wednesday or Thursday. This southward push of
cooler...drier air is aided by a tropical cyclone tracking
northward across the Eastern Gulf. Bottom line...locally we expect
continued hot and humid conditions with isolated rain showers
over the next few days...then a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms with the approach and passage of a cold front from
Tuesday until Thursday morning. This will be followed by cooler
and much less humid conditions for the Thursday night through much
of the weekend.

Looking more regionally...all eyes will be on a developing area of
low pressure over the NW Carribean...which will likely develop into
a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 2 or 3 days.
Details of track and speed are uncertain but should generally move
into the Gulf of Mexico...possibly via the Yucatan Channel... late
Tuesday or Wednesday and then track fairly quickly northward toward
the northeastern Gulf Coast. Track and speed remain uncertain but
potential to reach the Florida Panhandle or West Coast of Florida as
a hurricane as early as Thursday. At this point should have minimal
impact on the Texas coast other than an elevated rip current risk,
some elevated surf from long period swells being generated by the
hurricane...and some elevated seas in the marine area. Its doubtful
we`ll have any coastal flood concerns given offshore flow despite
some degree of wave runup...setup.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the day
with southeasterly winds generally around 10 knots. Winds trend
to light and variable this evening. Some patchy fog will be
possible again on early Monday morning in the usual trouble spots
(CXO/LBX/SGR) and lead to intermittent decreased visibilities.
High-res model guidance continues to point towards the development
of isolated to scattered showers as early as Monday morning along
the coast and drifting further inland in the afternoon. VCSH has
been added for the coastal sites at 15Z and at IAH after 21Z.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue over the
next few days with isolated streamer showers possible. Winds across
the marine area will gradually back from SE to NE by mid
week...ahead of a cold front and on the NW fringe of a large
cyclonic circulation developing over the Gulf.  This is part of the
environmental winds around a developing tropical cyclone which will
likely be tracking into and northward across the Eastern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. The passage of the cold front and the
aforementioned passage of a tropical cyclone...possibly at hurricane
intensity will lead to winds shifting to the north and
increasing...possibly to advisory levels by late Wednesday or
Thursday.

Reilly

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of
disorganized convection in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Conditions are favorable for this
area of low pressure to further develop, and is likely to result
in the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm as
it moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico over the next few
days. As of the Sunday afternoon update, the NHC has a 40%
(Medium) chance of formation over the next two days and an 80%
(High) chance of formation over the next seven days.
Model/ensemble trends continue to point towards this system
remaining in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and eventually
impacting the northeastern Gulf Coast. While direct impacts do
not look likely at the moment for SE Texas, it will be worth
keeping an eye on the latest forecast updates from the NHC
(www.hurricanes.gov) as this system continues to evolve. For
those with marine interests, this system may result in increased
rip currents and hazardous marine conditions towards mid to late
week along Texas beaches.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  74  92 /   0  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)  76  93  76  93 /   0  20  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  79  87 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Reilly