716
FXUS64 KHGX 211047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Ridging in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere should lead to
more benign weather in the days to come as the remnant effects of
Tropical Storm Alberto taper off. PWs in excess ov 1.5" will still
suffice for scattered showers/storms today and to a lesser degree on
Saturday. Most of this rain activity should be in areas along and
south of I-10. Breezy easterly winds along the coast spanning a long
fetch continue to bring minor coastal flooding concerns,
particularly this morning with high tide as water levels rise to 3.5
ft above MLLW. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect until 7 PM
Tonight. Coastal communities should continue to exercise caution
while traversing the barrier islands/coastal locations to allow
waters to recede from any impacted roadways. Otherwise, conditions
across SE Texas will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A robust upper level ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains
on Sunday helped to suppress rainfall potential, but help raise the
temperatures in SE Texas. Now there will be a tropical wave (more on
this in the Tropical section below) down in the Bay of Campeche that
may force some moisture underneath the high pressure causing some
isolated showers to the Matagorda Bay region Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. But, if any showers develop, they look to be
very isolated and weak at this time. The ridge of high pressure
will be sticking around Texas through the entirety of the long
term helping to keep any large rain makers away. However, PWATs
will be around 1.75-2.3" through next week, so some daytime
heating/sea breeze initiated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day.

Temperatures will be on the hot-side through next week. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s (maybe even upper
90s by Wednesday or Thursday). Factor in the humidity, heat indices
will be in the 100-105 degree range Sunday into Monday, then
potentially up to near 108 or 110 by Wednesday or Thursday. At this
time, Heat Advisories are looking likely by mid week next week for
portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the upper mid to
upper 70s for most of the area, but areas along the coast not
dropping below 80 is likely.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Isolated MVFR CIGS should clear later this morning with VFR
conditions largely dominating throughout the TAF period. Isolated
showers with the occasional storm will be possible through the
afternoon as winds shift ESE. Winds becoming light and variable
again this evening. Isolated patchy fog and occasional MVFR CIGs
cannot be ruled out early Saturday for areas west of I-45.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Wind have decreased through the last several hours, down to around
15g25kt, but bouy data shows seas still remaining between 5 and 9
feet. Mainly due to the elevated seas, the Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through the mid morning with conditions
continuing to improve through the day. Small craft should also
exercise caution in the bays due to some remaining gusty winds,
but also because of some debris left behind from the coastal
flooding the past few days. Some hazardous beach conditions are
expected to continue today with high tide rising to around 3.5ft
above MLLW, so the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
through this evening. There will also be a high risk of strong rip
currents through the next several days.

Otherwise, light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will
prevail through the start of next week with seas around 3-5ft.
There will also be a daily chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms. There is another tropical wave developing in Bay of
Campeche that *may* cause increased wave heights and water levels
at the start of next week *if* it ends up strengthening into a
tropical system. More on that in the tropical section below.

Fowler

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave near
the Bay of Campeche this weekend, near where Alberto developed,
as environmental conditions become favorable for gradual
development of a tropical cyclone. NHC gives this wave a medium
chance of development (40% within the next 2 days, 60% within the
next 7 days).

Impacts from this system, if it develops, to southeast Texas will
be much less compared to Alberto as high pressure overhead keeps
most of the impacts to the south. At most, we may see some
isolated shower activity over our southern waters and Matagorda
Bay area, increased rip current risk, and possibly some elevated
tides.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  73  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  92  76  94  74 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  88  80 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler