553
FXUS64 KHGX 192351
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

While heavy rainfall doesn`t appear to be a considerable threat,
moderate coastal flooding is occuring right now across the
Texas/Louisiana coastline. Numerous reports of innundation have been
received spanning locations from High Island to the Matagorda Ship
Channel. Many roadways have become impassable due to water and
debris. Coastal Flood Warnings will remain in effect until 7 PM
Thursday. Please avoid driving and or walking through flood waters
whenever possible.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect across the Gulf Waters,
including corresponding coastal areas from Jackson County to
Brazoria County. The wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto falls
short of the remaining coastal zones, thus a Wind Advisory continues
to be used in lieu for Galveston, Coastal Harris and Chambers
counties for these strong winds.

Finally, storm spotters reported a waterspout near Jamaica Beach
earlier today. SPC has portions of SE Texas under a Marginal (level
1/5) Risk of isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts from Tropical Storm
Alberto. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings, as
we cannot rule out the possibility of additional brief spin-ups
within this Tropical System.

Conditions should begin to improve Thursday Night into Friday as
Tropical Storm Alberto Tracks Westward into Mexico, later
dissipating.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Will remain unsettled through the long term period with a
persistent moderate easterly flow and abundant deep moisture.
Alberto will be long gone but development of a new cyclone is a
good bet in the Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday, similar to
what we observed with Alberto. High pressure to the north will
likely keep this next system from tracking N toward the
area...once again keeping the center well S...tracking westward
into Mexico. Unlike Alberto the pressure gradient and associated
winds will not be quite as strong...and size of wind field around
cyclone not quite as large so not looking at a carbon copy...but
do expect breezy conditions with elevated seas and tides even in
the extended range...just not quite as high as we are observing
today. Will have daily rain changes...with higher chances southern
zones...lesser rainfall northern...with drier conditions thanks
to surface ridge and subsidence.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Bands of showers and iso storms associated to Tropical Storm
Alberto, located just east of Tampico Mexico, will continue to
move across the SE TX region for the rest of today and early
tonight. As the system moves across the eastern coast of Mexico
during the overnight hours, rain activity will ebb. There might
still be some passing showers moving over the coastal regions,
affecting LBX/GLS and possibly HOU from time to time. Winds will
remain elevated this evening, in particular for areas closer to
the coast, but will slightly relax overnight. However, they are
expected to pick up again Thu morning, mainly for sites IAH
southward. On Thu, Hi-Res models are showing another round of
showers and iso storms moving into the local area starting along
the coastal areas in the mid to late morning timeframe and
expanding northward across much of SE TX in the afternoon to
evening hours. Will likely continue to issue AMDs and TEMPOs on
Thu as the event unfolds. Although mostly MVFR to VFR conditions
are expected, stronger showers could result in brief moments of
IFR vis/cigs as well as stronger gusts. Small quick vortices and
areas of wind shear is also not out of the question.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist into Thursday as
Tropical Storm Alberto continues to approach the coast of Eastern
Mexico. Overnight and into tomorrow, tropical storm force winds are
expected to continue across Matagorda Bay and the SE TX coastal
waters. Winds of 25-35 knots with gusts of up to 50 knots are
possible, along with seas of 10 to 17 feet. Across Galveston Bay,
winds of 25 to 30 knots with gusts as high as 40 knots are possible.
As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Conditions
will begin to gradually improve on Thursday as Alberto makes
landfall in Mexico and pushes inland.

In addition to the hazardous marine conditions, this system is
expected to continue to result in flooding along the SE TX coastline
through tomorrow`s high tide. Inundation of 2-4 ft (locally higher)
is expected to impact the immediate coast. Finally, the strong
onshore winds associated with Alberto will produce strong rip
currents through at least Friday morning.

Cady/Ellis

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As of 1 PM CDT, the center of what is now Tropical Storm Alberto
was located approximately 295 miles south-southeast of
Brownsville, or just over 400 miles southwest of Matagorda Bay.
Despite how far the center of circulation is from the SE TX coast,
the unusually large swath of tropical storm-force winds extending
from the system will continue to produce impacts across the area.
The primary concern overnight and into tomorrow morning`s high
tide will continue to be coastal flooding, where 2-4 ft (locally
higher) of inundation are possible along the immediate coast.
Coastal flooding has already resulted in impacts to many of our
coastal communities, including Galveston, Jamaica Beach, Surfside
Beach, and Sargent. In addition to this, some brief heavy
downpours may produce pockets of isolated flash flooding through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, with the
highest risk for this across locations surrounding Matagorda Bay.
Tropical storm force winds will continue to remain a possibility
along portions of the SE TX coast, in addition to our coastal
waters (not including Galveston Bay). Gusts as high as 50-55 mph
will remain a possibility at times. Finally, an isolated
waterspout/tornado associated with advancing rainbands can`t
totally be ruled out...earlier today, we received visual
confirmation of a waterspout just offshore of Jamaica Beach.

Conditions should begin to improve on Thursday afternoon as Alberto
pushes inland along the Eastern Mexico coastline.

Cady/Ellis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  92  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  77  91  74  91 /  40  40  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  88  81  88 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ335>337-436-437.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-238-313-338-438-
     439.

     Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ226-235>238-335>338-
     436>438.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Cady