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FXUS64 KHGX 290831
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The dominance of our new friend, the upper-level ridge, remains
unchallenged as we creep forward into summer. Its presence over the
Southern CONUS region continues to be broad and unyielding moving
into the next couple of days. This is not atypical in our summer
pattern, but its effect on our temperatures remains significant as
July approaches. Expect highs to be well into the 90s. Coastal
regions should remain in the lower 90s while our northern counties
are closer to high-90s. Minimum temperatures will once again be in
the high-70s. Locations along the coast and in the Houston Metro may
not dip below 80 tonight. Some relief Sunday, with broad mid- 70s
lows except regions near Galveston Bay and the Barrier Islands.

Our Heat Advisory will go into effect at 12pm CDT this afternoon,
and will last until 7pm CDT. Guidance suggests heat indices will
remain on the higher end of the range of Heat Advisory criteria
(108-112F) in some areas, so please take proper precautions to
remain safe during these times. Some actions you can take are:
know the symptoms of heat related illnesses, drink plenty of
water, avoid strenuous outside activity, and check in on family,
neighbors, and pets.

Heat indices for Sunday remain in the triple digits, and may warrant
the need for another Heat Advisory in the afternoon hours. We will
be monitoring this closely. Remember, regardless of whether a Heat
Advisory is issued again for tomorrow, you should still take proper
precautions.

Precipitation-wise, guidance remains in persistence with isolated
showers and thunderstorms being possible in our afternoons. New
rainfall amounts are projected to be less 0.1 inches, though
slightly heavier amounts are possible when associated with strong
thunderstorms.

Ellis/Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Not a whole lot of change to the ongoing forecast with broad mid-upper
ridging mainly in control. Would anticipate the continued potential
for some heat advisories depending on the llvl moisture/rh profiles
and whether we can get some dewpoints to mix out. Otherwise, isolated
diurnally driven precip is a possibility on a day-to-day basis
with southern and eastern parts of the CWA seeing the better shot
of measurable rain versus the Brazos Valley. The tropical wave/low
over the nw Caribbean should be moving into Mexico early in the
week and not a concern locally. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities are still anticipated to develop overnight
across our northern TAF sites (CXO northward). Look for S winds around
5 to 9 knots. Any ceilings that do develop should persist until around
15Z when increasing S winds settle into the area (around or slightly
above 10 knots). Some models are still hinting at possible SHRA developing
overnight, and will adjust TAFs if this happens. VFR in the afternoon,
and still not confident enough to mention any VCSH at this time. Anything
that does develop will dissipate in the evening. Expecting to basically
repeat this whole thing Saturday night through Sunday morning. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Onshore winds will prevail through the middle of next week. A
broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sunday
and should bring a longer period 4-6ft swell into the northwest
Gulf waters Sunday then diminish Monday. Otherwise, this system is
expected to push inland into Mexico early in the week and is not
anticipated to further impact the upper Texas coast. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  77  97  76 /  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  96  79  97  77 /  30   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  92  82  90  80 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335-338-438-439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$