Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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196 FXUS64 KHGX 111905 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 It will be an increasingly active afternoon across the area as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the sea breeze and slowly/gradually work their way inland while more showers/storms in and around the Hill Country area work their way into Southeast Texas. Slower moving storms or where any collisions happen could result in locally heavy rainfall. Cannot totally rule out a couple strong/severe storms to develop too. The area remains in a northeast to southwest oriented trof axis tonight/tomorrow, and additional showers and thunderstorms should develop again with a similar locally heavy rainfall threat. Look for things to quiet down heading on into Wednesday night as ridging and some associated subsidence begins to build into the area. As previously stated, temperatures will continue to be tempered by the increased clouds/storms through the short-term. Outside of the rain areas, highs will range from the lower and mid 90s. Overnight lows will run from the lower to mid 70s for most locations...near 80 along the immediate coast. 42 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For Thursday, our temperatures should rise to a maximum around 95F due to increasing ridging aloft. The minimum should not have a drastic change and will remain at a steady 70-75F throughout the week. These maximum temperature values will decrease to 90-95F near Sunday evening. This decrease will occur based primarily on tropical moisture moving into our area. This will also cause the chance for thunderstorms to be more likely from Sunday evening through Wednesday. There is potential for locally heavy rainfall depending on the tropical moisture plume. These possible thunderstorms are described in more detail in the "Tropical" portion of this discussion. In terms of wind, they should remain to be onshore with a speed around 5-15 mph throughout the week. Cloud cover will be scattered for the next few days, however overcast clouds are likely to be present Sunday evening through Wednesday due to increasing moisture. Thompson/Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Expecting increasing SHRA/TSRA coverage this afternoon, and will adjust TAFs as needed (will indicate MVFR ceilings/vsbys and possible gusty winds with the stronger activity). Will also be watching storm complex heading towards the CLL-UTS area from the west this afternoon. Should quiet down this evening with possible fog development overnight. There is a chance we could have SHRA/TSRA start earlier tomorrow, so for now we will start with VCSH beginning at 12Z. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Winds will remain onshore with a wind speed from 5-15 knots for the next week. Wave height will be close to 2 feet through the next few days but will gradually increase throughout Sunday and Monday. This will eventually get the waves to a height of 6 feet by Monday night. Increase in winds and seas could possibly lead to caution flags at the end of the weekend into early next week. There is also an increase in rain chances from Sunday evening all the way through Wednesday. As of now, uncertainty remains on thunderstorm coverage early next week. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts. Thompson/Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 We know that there`s some buzz going around about something potentially developing in the Gulf early next week, so let`s address the elephant in the room. First things first, this is still about a week out so any deterministic model you look at SHOULD be taken with a grain of salt. There does look to be at least a plume of tropical moisture that moves into the western Gulf of Mexico next week, but beyond that it`s too early to set anything in stone. Wherever the moisture plume moves over (even that`s a bit uncertain at this point) will have increased chances of heavy rainfall due to the deeper tropical moisture raising PW values above 2". If that moisture points more towards the Texas coast, then we`ll have to watch for potential impacts from additional heavy rain falling in areas that have not fully recovered from the previous heavy rain events earlier in the spring. All that being said...it is hurricane season, so regardless of if there`s anything in the Gulf or not you should already have your preparations in place. The best time to prepare for hurricane season is before it starts, the second best time is now. This section of the discussion will only be updated as needed, so keep track of the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 88 72 92 / 20 30 0 10 Houston (IAH) 74 90 74 93 / 40 40 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 79 90 / 40 40 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...42 MARINE...Batiste